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| Kathmandu, Friday February 28, 2003 Falgun 16, 2059. |
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Peace in trouble? Not yet
By VIJAY B KUNWAR
Now that the truce announced by the government
and the Maoists entering day 31 today, with traumatised pupils inside, eyebrows are being
raised in utter uncertainty in every nook and corner of the city. While the countryside
significantly observed quiet and the epicentre of the most feared future shock now
revolving around the capital valley, time is running out faster than the tidal waves.
Contrary to the aspirations of the common people, not much information about the progress
is disseminated on the current status of the peace process.
Statements from Maoist boss Prachanda and its
ideologue and chief negotiator Dr Bhattarai are on the rise with a bit dissatisfaction
over the continuing stalemate. The Maoists are exerting pressure on the government to
constitute, among other actions to initiate, the numbers of negotiating team, having a
clear mandate of agreeing or disagreeing with the dialogue proceedings. They seem to be
equally on the run out, this time bare handed (unarmed). They have been meeting the major
political parties that still command the formal representation of the common man in the
Nepali society. Here the Maoists seem to be more concerned to involve the parties in the
dialogue. This is evidenced by their hectic rounds of maneuvering with all sizes of
parties, some are even not in parliament.
True to the doubts of the Maoists, the
government has not yet been able to make public its official stance that actually
transpired before concluding the cease-fire agreement. Nor has it been able to clarify its
stand on the three fundamental issues which the Maoists have, time and again, made
stressfully public through various media, Maoist and non-Maoist. But still realising the
reality of the previous peace talks, that failed, beginning almost one and a half months
after the truce was announced with the Deuba government, one cannot guess the peace
process heading to trouble again. The earlier talks had failed to cause an irreparable
loss of more than six thousand precious lives. This time no one is even ready to think of
the dreadful days and bear any further damage. Peace is so lovely that these past four or
five weeks have travelled so fast, though with more curious and uncertain days ahead.
Nepal had had real party politics in the last
twelve years or since the restoration of multiparty democracy -1990. Statements coming
from the main stream big shot politicians are indicating to the fact that these parties in
the now lop-sided parliament are not out, yet. They are firing their shots as usual. Some
like the UML, are making waspish remarks on the current state of the affairs of
post-truce, be it the situation that led the Maoists and the government meet in camera or
the future process of the not-yet-resumed negotiation. But whatever is coming out, is,
nevertheless, provoking the Maoists to run away into the woods again before staging any
roundtable.
It was GP Koirala, the president of the Nepali
Congress, who pushed the Maoists beyond the edge of the dialogue table in November 2001.
He was making ridiculous statements as well as directing his party’s premier Deuba
with a dozen dos and don’ts . Apart from their probable hidden agenda, the Maoists
found a logical pretension to desert the table out of disbelief over Deuba’s
capability and authenticity to materialise any consensus into reality. Lacking the
blessings and firm commitments from the party boss, Deuba may have been considered a mere
paper-tiger.
But time has taken a new turn. Although Koirala
has not refrained from sounding in querulous tones, he seems to be representing His
Master’s Voice. The bottom line: Koirala wants to re-instate the dissolved house (of
representatives) and form a new government. He seems to be in a delirium. He has an
illusion of his party still commanding the majority. Is this similar to the part of the
recent history that the UML had refused to recognise the existence of its own breakaway
faction, namely ML as a party at all? The UML was right; the ML could not prove itself a
party and scored a zero in the elections held subsequently. But, in the meantime, euphoria
of the UML was also shattered to pieces. It could not realise its dreams come real. Nor
could it rule the country either. But since the NC has not yet undergone the litmus test,
whether minus Deuba and the NC (D), it still represents the hopes and aspirations of its
earlier vote base or otherwise.
The UML was the second largest party in the last
Lower House. With Deuba’s expulsion from his original organisation, creation of a new
party, as an NC breakaway and his dismissal on October 4 under charges of incompetence,
the UML seems to be flying high. Emerging a winner with an artificial brinkmanship amid
the confusion created by the less welcome truce, it could not run away from the latest
Maoist phrases hitting the nerves of the nation. Among the three Maoist
"jargons", Constituent Assembly remained the most sensitive issue that dominated
UML’s Janakpur convention, some in approval while a few in total disapproval of the
idea itself. More than democratic in making speeches and issuing statements, the UML top
brass tried hard not to enter into the new business at all. As the rules of the dialectics
go, any happening is sure to have implications on the thoughts. As a result, the case-fire
and the issues intermingled with it had to be taken into consideration, to keep all
options open for discussion and consideration among the party line-ups.
Secretary General Madhav Nepal, through an
article published in a vernacular daily, has chosen to differ with Koirala on the issue
how the king should correct his mistake committed on October 4. For the final time, Nepal
wants to lead a government inclusive of all parties in parliament to hold talks with the
Maoists. The Maoists seem to have welcomed such indications, provided the givers were the
UML and et cetera. Otherwise, why should they care for permanent peace if they are going
to lose the power game forever!
The UML also mostly confined to the city
dwellings of the Kathmandu valley like the NC, this time the verbal war is going to take
place between the UML and the Maoists. More or less a communist before the western world,
the UML has not yet forbidden the Marxist name. Hence, the country will have to witness
the war between the one time ultra-leftists now assembled under the UML trademark, and the
latest breed of Marxists with an emblem of "Maoists". Victory of the Maoists
will see the UML cadre base skinned down, whereas the UML defeat will ultimately turn the
line-up as a mere bhai-Kangress (NC’s younger brother). Political extermination of
the one breed is sure to happen. Hence, if the truce is not turned into a permanent state
of peace and is pushed into trouble again, then it may not only put the UML men in
trouble, but the whole nation may also run into head collusion. There may be no further
chance to negotiate peace with anybody or any party. Solving the question of legitimacy of
the present government may remain a case unresolved. The nation has a danger of falling
prey to non-native hands. Mind it, there will be no epitaph written in anyone’s
memory, never.
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