KATHMANDU: The recent military operation, Operation Sindoor, conducted by Indian armed forces, has heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, with potential ramifications for regional security. The operation targeted nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), allegedly linked to terrorist organizations Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). These groups are widely known for their involvement in attacks against India. In response, Pakistan launched counterattacks, resulting in casualties on both sides. As a result, relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have deteriorated further, raising concerns about the stability of the region.
Nepal, located between India and China, faces a precarious situation in this geopolitical landscape. While the operation did not directly involve Nepal, the growing tensions pose significant risks to the country’s security, diplomatic neutrality, and foreign policy. Nepal’s vulnerability in the face of escalating India-Pakistan tensions is compounded by its open borders, historical accusations, and evolving regional dynamics.
Nepal’s geopolitical position and security risks
Historically, Nepal has maintained a policy of neutrality, striving to maintain good relations with both India and Pakistan. However, the heightened conflict between India and Pakistan presents a dilemma for Nepal, which could become caught in the crossfire due to its geographical location and the volatile political situation in the region.
Nepal shares open borders with both India and China, making it susceptible to spillover effects from any conflict between India and Pakistan. One of the primary security concerns is the potential infiltration of militants into Nepal. In the past, India has accused Nepal of harboring militant groups. These allegations, particularly concerning Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, stem from the belief that militants may use Nepal’s porous borders as a safe haven for training or transit. Though Nepal’s government has consistently denied these claims, India’s concerns over terrorist training camps in Nepal have led to strained relations at times.
If tensions between India and Pakistan escalate further, Nepal could find itself under pressure from both countries to act against such militant elements within its borders. Additionally, Nepal’s security infrastructure is relatively weak, and an influx of militants or insurgents could overwhelm the country’s law enforcement and intelligence agencies.
Border vulnerabilities and humanitarian concerns
Despite there being no historical record of Indian nationals seeking refugee status in Nepal, the open and porous border shared by the two countries introduces unique vulnerabilities. In times of political or social unrest in India, Nepal could face spillover challenges that may not fit the traditional definition of a refugee crisis but still strain its resources and infrastructure. These challenges could include increased migration, security concerns, and economic pressures on border communities.
The unrestricted movement across the nearly 1,800 km border allows for fluid travel, which, while beneficial for trade and cultural exchange, also creates potential risks during crises. Unregulated migration could place pressure on Nepal’s healthcare, education, and public services in border regions, testing its capacity to respond effectively. Additionally, the lack of stringent border controls makes it difficult to monitor large-scale movements, complicating humanitarian responses during emergencies.
Furthermore, political tensions or civil unrest spilling over from India could heighten ethnic and communal sensitivities in Nepal’s Terai region, where demographics are closely tied to cross-border communities. Managing these dynamics would require careful coordination between local governments and security forces to ensure peace and stability while upholding humanitarian obligations.
Diplomatic tensions: Nepal’s balancing act
Nepal’s neutral foreign policy has historically been its cornerstone. However, the growing India-Pakistan tensions could force Nepal to reassess this stance. While Nepal has generally avoided taking sides in India-Pakistan conflicts, the current situation is far more complex. Nepal could face mounting diplomatic pressure from both India and Pakistan to align itself with one side or take stronger measures against militant activities within its borders.
In particular, India’s concerns over Nepal’s role as a potential sanctuary for militants remain a significant challenge. Over the years, India has frequently, albeit unofficially and through media narratives, portrayed Nepal as a potential safe haven for terrorists, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attacks. While Nepal has consistently denied these allegations, the specter of militant infiltration could push India to demand more robust action from Nepal’s security agencies.
At the same time, Nepal must also navigate its relationship with Pakistan, which has historical ties with Nepal, particularly through trade and diplomatic exchanges. Any perceived tilt toward India could damage Nepal’s relationship with Pakistan and potentially invite its ire. Conversely, Nepal must also be cautious about the growing China-Nepal ties, as any overt alignment with Pakistan could increase tensions with India, which views China’s growing presence in Nepal with suspicion.
MPs’ concerns and Nepal’s political landscape
In the most recent session of the Nepali Parliament, Nepali Congress leader and former Foreign Minister NP Saud expressed his concerns about the ongoing situation. Saud questioned the Pakistani Army delegation’s visit to Nepal during such a sensitive period. His comments reflect the broader unease among Nepalese lawmakers, who fear that Nepal might be inadvertently dragged into the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan.
Many Members of Parliament (MPs) have voiced their concerns about the potential repercussions of the escalating conflict on Nepal’s internal stability. There is growing apprehension about Nepal being caught in the geopolitical tug-of-war between its two powerful neighbors. MPs from various parties have called for a review of Nepal’s foreign policy to ensure that the country remains neutral and avoids becoming embroiled in external conflicts.
This political debate highlights the complexity of Nepal’s position in the region. While the country seeks to maintain good relations with India, it is also wary of alienating Pakistan, which could have long-term implications for trade and diplomatic ties. As tensions rise, the Nepali government faces mounting pressure to manage these complex relationships while safeguarding national security and sovereignty.
Border security: A growing challenge
As military tensions escalate between India and Pakistan, Nepal may need to enhance its border security to prevent any spillover effects from the conflict. This includes monitoring potential militant infiltration and ensuring that Nepal’s borders are secure. With open borders that facilitate the free movement of people and goods, Nepal could find itself vulnerable to cross-border activities by terrorist groups or insurgents.
Nepal may also need to increase intelligence-sharing with both India and Pakistan to mitigate the risks of militant infiltration. While Nepal has traditionally avoided involvement in conflicts between its neighbors, the growing threat of terrorism and instability could force Nepal to take more proactive steps in securing its borders. This might involve closer cooperation with regional security agencies to address the broader security challenges arising from the India-Pakistan conflict.
Strategic options for Nepal
For Nepal, the key challenge lies in maintaining its neutrality while addressing the growing security risks in the region. The country must navigate its relationships with both India and Pakistan, ensuring that it does not get caught in the crossfire of their geopolitical rivalry. One potential avenue for Nepal is to strengthen its diplomatic engagement with international organizations, such as the United Nations, to ensure that it is seen as a responsible actor in the region.
At the same time, Nepal may need to enhance its domestic security measures to prepare for potential challenges. This could include bolstering border security infrastructure, improving intelligence gathering, and working closely with international partners to address militant threats. Nepal must also prioritize the protection of refugees who may seek shelter in the event of escalating conflict in Kashmir.
Ultimately, Nepal’s ability to navigate this volatile situation will depend on its capacity to maintain diplomatic independence while addressing its internal security needs. By balancing these concerns with a commitment to regional stability, Nepal can continue to play a vital role in promoting peace and neutrality in South Asia.
