US expected to expand South Korea and Japan security

At their first trilateral summit, the United States, South Korea, and Japan are expected to form an ongoing tripartite security system to defend the Indo-Pacific area – a move China rejects as adversarial, according to experts, Voice of America (VOA) reported.

The US will use the gathering of the three nations on Friday, August 18, at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, to strengthen its two treaty relationships and expand their roles in the area, according to experts.

US President Joe Biden, his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are anticipated to make announcements at the summit's conclusion about holding follow-up meetings and taking steps to strengthen security cooperation beyond thwarting North Korean threats, according to VOA.

Evans Revere, who served as the acting assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs during the George W. Bush administration, said a joint statement by the three leaders is likely to reflect these plans.

"The statement will make clear that North Korea is not the only concern that has brought them together for this unprecedented trilateral gathering at Camp David," Revere said.

"While Pyongyang may be the most urgent threat, the PRC is undoubtedly the biggest strategic challenge facing Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul over the long term," he said.

"The agreements reached this historic summit will move the three countries closer to a permanent partnership that focuses on intelligence and information sharing, missile defence, joint military exercises, cybersecurity, early warning cooperation, and enhanced nuclear deterrence," said Revere.

Merging the efforts of South Korea and Japan into an ongoing partnership has long been a goal for the US. It is possible now because the leaders of the two countries mended frayed ties in March. Antagonisms rooted in the Japanese colonization of the Korean Peninsula from 1910-45 had hampered close cooperation between the two East Asian nations, especially on military matters, VOA reported.

The US, South Korea and Japan conducted joint ballistic missile drills in October, February, April and July in response to North Korea's missile launches.

Traditionally, South Korea has focused on deterring North Korean threats while Japan has been involved in defending against China's claim to the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, referred to as the Diaoyu in Chinese, VOA reported.

Now, Seoul and Tokyo are expected to consolidate their efforts against threats from their two autocratic neighbours.

Yoon emphasized in his National Liberation Day speech on Tuesday that Japan's role is critical in defending against a North Korean attack. He said seven rear Japanese bases will provide land, sea and air capabilities for the US-led UN Command stationed in South Korea if fighting breaks out on the peninsula.

Yoon added that the summit will set "a new milestone in trilateral cooperation" and that boosting cooperation with NATO is also important as security in the Indo-Pacific is closely connected to the security of Europe, VOA reported.

South Korea's defence against North Korea has been supported by the US-led UN Command, composed of multilateral forces stationed in the country. Japan's defence against China has been propped up by its membership in the QUAD security dialogue, whose other members are the US, Australia and India.

"The three countries' national security and defence strategies are already closely aligned," said Daniel Russel, who served as the assistant US secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs in the Obama administration, VOA reported.

"All three leaders are deeply concerned by the risks posed by increasingly assertive Chinese military behaviour and are sure to discuss practical ways to bolster deterrence and reduce the risk of an incident," he added.

At a press conference on Tuesday after a virtual meeting with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the trilateral collaboration will be expanded and "further institutionalized" through regular meetings at senior levels.

Terence Roehrig, a professor of national security and Korea expert at the US Naval War College, said institutionalising trilateral dialogue is an important goal of this summit so that the ties "can withstand any further turmoil in relations between Japan and South Korea."

State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said at a press briefing on Tuesday that the summit is not meant to be "provocative" or "to incite tensions" with China. Nevertheless, Beijing views it as antagonistic, VOA reported.

Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu told VOA's Korean Service via email on Tuesday that "China has noticed that exclusionary groupings are being assembled for the so-called 'regional security,' only to intensify antagonism and undermine the strategic security of other countries."

He added, "China firmly opposes such practices."

Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu agreed on closer military cooperation when they met at the Moscow Conference on International Security on Tuesday, VOA reported.

Moscow has leaned on Pyongyang for arms support to fight its war against Ukraine. The U.S. Treasury on Wednesday sanctioned entities involved in arms deals between Russia and North Korea, VOA reported.

Andrew Yeo, the SK-Korea Foundation chair in Korea Studies at the Brookings Institution, said the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo ties "along with other initiatives like the QUAD or AUKUS, should clearly signal" to the China-North Korea-Russian partnership "that their decision to undermine international norms and rules will only strengthen partnership among US allies."