Electricity Diplomacy: Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

By Md. Abusalah Sakender

In 2023, under the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's regime, Bangladesh attempted to import electricity from Nepal.

Nepal accepted the Bangladeshi offer enthusiastically and expressed interest in exporting electricity to Bangladesh for 25 years.

In June 2023, the then Ambassador of Bangladesh to Nepal, Salahuddin Noman Chowdhury, paid a courtesy visit to Nepali Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Narayankaji Shrestha.

During this occasion, the Nepali minister commented to journalists on the electricity trade agreement between Bangladesh and Nepal, stating, "The recent agreement on power trade has further strengthened the cordial relations between Nepal and Bangladesh."

On the Bangladeshi side, officials expressed satisfaction with the agreement, which was crucial for meeting Bangladesh's electricity needs at the time.

Ambassador Chowdhury conveyed his hope that the electricity trade agreement would be a milestone in the relationship between the two countries. However, the deal never materialized before the July uprising.

The electricity supply depended on India due to geographical constraints.

Although the borders of Bangladesh and Nepal are relatively close, they are not neighboring countries; they are separated by a 22-kilometer stretch of territory in the Indian state of West Bengal, which is governed by Mamata Banerjee.

Specifically, the "Siliguri Corridor" of West Bengal lies between southern Nepal and northern Bangladesh.

Given these geographical barriers, Bangladesh and Nepal require India's cooperation and support for their electricity trade.

At that time, India maintained good relations with both Bangladesh and Nepal, which facilitated discussions regarding the electricity trade.

In 2023, India agreed to provide a power line to supply electricity from Nepal to Bangladesh.

The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Limited of India, and the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) sought to sign a tripartite agreement to allow the export of electricity from Nepal to Bangladesh using Indian territory.

However, during the ousted Prime Minister Hasina's rule, which ended with her fleeing India due to the July uprising, India did not sign the agreement.

Nevertheless, India and Bangladesh enjoyed amicable bilateral relations under the administrations of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Hasina and Indian Prime Minister Modi.

Former Bangladeshi Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen remarked that Bangladesh-India relations were akin to a husband-wife relationship during his tenure in Hasina's government.

His Indian counterpart also acknowledged the strength of the Bangladesh-India ties. During Hasina's era, India exported electricity to Bangladesh.

Simultaneously, Bangladesh signed an agreement with Nepal to supply electricity to Bangladesh that year; in 2023, Adani Group provided power to Bangladesh, causing India to delay signing the trilateral agreement with Bangladesh and Nepal.

However, India’s narrative differs. India has blamed delays in electricity supplies from Nepal to Bangladesh on political unrest in Bangladesh, despite the political situation being peaceful until July 2024.

The trilateral agreements among Nepal, Bangladesh, and India are a hallmark for all South Asian countries.

They opened the door for other South Asian nations to sign similar agreements to distribute electricity and build a prosperous and civilized South Asia.

Additionally, these trilateral relations present a new opportunity for India to share electricity from one part of its country to another through Bangladeshi territory.

If India can supply electricity from one part to another, particularly to its underdeveloped northeastern regions, the entire landscape of the Seven Sisters will change.

New industries may emerge, and the transportation system could undergo a complete transformation, enabling the development of an electricity-based transportation system across the hilly regions.

This would significantly improve the lives of the residents in these areas.

However, India's diplomatic relations with the Bangladeshi interim government have deteriorated. Student leaders of the unelected Bangladeshi regime, serving as advisors and playing crucial roles in decision-making, have exhibited an anti-Indian stance since the beginning of their rule.

Recently, Hasnat Abdullah, a prominent coordinator of the Anti-Discrimination Movement, marched with his supporters to India, and activists of the movement have continuously threatened and criticized India.

For instance, they declared that if India attempts to restore ousted Prime Minister Hasina and her party, the Bangladesh Awami League, they would fight for the independence of the Seven Sisters.

The Chief Advisor of Bangladesh and Nobel Peace Prize winner Dr. Mohammad Yunus has also expressed dissatisfaction with India due to its attitude toward the ousted Prime Minister Hasina and her party.

The Bangladeshi interim government is also concerned about Indian media outlets and their focus on Bangladesh-related news.

Conversely, India is troubled by Bangladesh's growing bilateral relations with Pakistan, which had been stagnant during Hasina's regime.

Recently, Pakistan and Bangladesh restored direct shipping connections, prompting further concern from India.

Additionally, India is worried about the safety of the Bangladeshi minority population, particularly Hindus, and the security situation in the region, including the Seven Sisters.

They have called for the protection of the Bangladeshi interim government, especially in light of fears arising from mob rule.

India’s apprehension has increased due to the rise of extremist groups, including the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, a pro-Pakistani right-wing political party.

As a result, India halted the Bangladesh-India visa application center and has maintained limited bilateral relations with Bangladesh since the uprising in July.

Amid these circumstances, the tripartite agreement among India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, signed on October 3, 2024, in Kathmandu, was a significant step in improving Bangladesh-India relations.

However, despite this agreement, Nepal could not supply electricity to Bangladesh on time due to India's non-approval.

On November 15, 2024, India opened its doors to Bangladesh, allowing Nepal to supply electricity to Bangladesh through the Behrampur-Bhedamara 400 kV transmission line via India.

Although this was a one-day supply, it marked a new chapter in trilateral relations in South Asia.

Bangladesh will receive 25 MW and 22 MW of electricity from the Nepali Trishuli and Chilime hydropower projects, respectively.

While this is a small amount compared to Bangladesh's needs, it signifies potential opportunities for both Bangladesh and Nepal.

Since Bangladesh cannot produce sufficient electricity to meet its demand, there is a prospect for increased electricity exports from Nepal in the future.

However, India is unlikely to relinquish its electric trade market to Nepal. The Indian Adani Group has been supplying electricity to Bangladesh since 2023. Nonetheless, the electricity trade between Bangladesh and India is under threat due to the unstable bilateral relations in the post-July uprising period.

After Hasina's ousting, Bangladesh has continued to face electricity shortages, with increasing blackouts from Adani Power’s plant in Jharkhand, India.

In this context, on November 19, 2024, Bangladesh’s High Court ordered the interim government to form a high-level inquiry committee, comprising international energy and law experts, to reevaluate all electricity-related agreements, including those with the Adani Group.

This order is expected to complicate Bangladesh-India bilateral relations in the coming days.

Despite the complex bilateral relations, India has opened its doors to Bangladesh and Nepal to facilitate the supply of Nepali electricity from Nepal to Bangladesh through Indian transmission lines.

According to the current tripartite agreement, India has facilitated Nepal in supplying electricity to Bangladesh for five years.

From June 2025, during the rainy season between June 15 and November 15 each year, Nepal will supply electricity to Bangladesh through the Indian transmission line.

However, the success of this arrangement will largely depend on how Bangladesh and India manage their bilateral relations in the upcoming year.

The Nepali electricity trade is a milestone for both Bangladesh and Nepal, as well as for the history of trade in South Asia.

Ultimately, the dynamics will hinge on India’s role, given its geographical ties that will dominate the bilateral electricity relations between Bangladesh and Nepal.

Although the Nepalese government maintains excellent diplomatic relations with India, the Bangladeshi side remains uncertain due to the anti-Indian stance of the student-led unelected interim government.

(Md. Abusalah Sakender is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Islamic History & Culture at Jagannath University in Dhaka, Bangladesh. He can be reached at salah.sakender@outlook.com)