Oscar Predictions: Will ‘Power of the Dog’ reign supreme?

March 18, 2022
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Ahead of the 94th Academy Awards, Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony with much still up in the air.

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees: “Belfast”; “CODA”; “Don’t Look Up”; “Drive My Car”; “Dune”; “King Richard”; “Licorice Pizza”; “Nightmare Alley”; “The Power of the Dog”; “West Side Story.”

BAHR: At this point, it really feels like the award will go to “The Power of the Dog.” It is paradoxically both a safe choice and a game-changer in that it would be a first best picture win for Netflix after years of trying. Jane Campion’s last major shot at the picture (and director) was with “The Piano,” but in 1994 that basically stood no chance against “Schindler’s List.” This time, it’s her film that has the leg up on the Spielberg. And yet there is a distant possibility that “CODA” could “Little Miss Sunshine”/”Green Book” it’s the COYLE: I’m calling the “CODA” upset. The smart money is on Campion’s film. But the win for “CODA” at the Screen Actors Guild — where “The Power of the Dog” failed to get nominated for best ensemble — suggests strong passion for the film, and maybe a crowd-pleasing advantage on the academy’s preferential ballot. Either film, though, will symbolize the ascent of streaming in Hollywood. It would hand a streaming service — Netflix or Apple — Hollywood’s most prestigious honor for the first time. Maybe that’s a big deal, maybe it’s belated confirmation of what everyone has known for some time.

BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”; Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”; Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”; Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”; Kristen Stewart, “Spencer.”

COYLE: This has been the cruelest of categories, laying waste to most expectations and some very sensational performances. Lady Gaga, Caitríona Balfe, Jennifer Hudson, and my favorite performance of the year — Renate Reinsve (“The Worst Person in the World”) — are just some of the masses among the snubbed. Yet, surprisingly, a very Oscar bait-y performance from a movie released early in the season — Jessica Chastain as the televangelist Tammy Faye — has moved to favorite status after winning the SAG Awards. That may partly be because Chastain, a three-time nominee but never a winner, is one of Hollywood’s best actors and the time has come to honor her, for a film she steered into existence. I think she’ll win, but Olivia Colman — typically brilliant in “The Lost Daughter” — could sneak in for her second Academy Award. the way in there as the feel-good alternative (which was what “Belfast” was supposed to be).