Large wargames between the USA, Australia and eleven partner nations kicked off on July 21, the largest ever in the history of Exercise Talisman Sabre. It was little surprise that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was not invited to participate, but China nonetheless played a central role in the exercise.
Colonel Ben McLennan, Commander of the Australian Army’s Combat Training Centre based in Townsville, told reporters, “This activity that’s occurring here is just the richest, most immersive and most realistic, no-consequence training environment that we can possibly create. We’re calling it the Olympics of wargames because it’s the biggest, most ambitious Talisman Sabre ever.”
The exercise’s land component centred near Townsville involves 10,000 soldiers, whereas the whole exercise enlists more than 30,000 troops. Col McLennan said one key objective of the exercise was to act as a “demonstration”.
“I mean, I don’t know how more tangible you need to get of manifesting resolve amongst like-minded nations, or willingness to work together … This activity is a demonstration of our combined commitment to a peaceful, prosperous region, globe. And that demonstration will resonate in Australia, throughout our region and across the world. So that’s what this activity is about.”
Without directly naming China as the audience for this military exercise, he reaffirmed that it is a “demonstrative activity”. In the scenario, Australia, the USA and allies were “fighting against a doctrinal enemy that has comprehensive overmatch” in areas such as electronic warfare, cyberwarfare and long-range fires. In other words, the red force was using the tactics of a powerful unnamed nation.
In an exercise scenario, Col McLellan said the participants “get to practice against an enemy that can outmatch them readily, can outperform them, can outthink them”. But how many peer adversaries does the USA have? It is really only Russia and China.
The fictional “enemy” became even more apparent in the props and mock-ups of enemy vehicles used in the wargames. These very accurately resembled PLA armoured vehicles and their camouflage schemes. So, the message put out by these partners was subtle yet definite. They view China as a pacing threat, and their militaries are rehearsing how to counter PLA aggression.
Indeed, the scenario, types of activities and highly integrated organization of combat teams all reflected situations applicable to the Indo-Pacific region, and lessons that have been gleaned from combat in Ukraine. One example of this was the US emphasis on maritime operations, such as bringing in supplies by sea and conducting amphibious assaults. This is what it would do in any contingency involving Taiwan, for instance.
Apart from the key Australian and American partners, forces from Canada, Fiji, France, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, South Korea, Tonga and the UK were participating. In addition, personnel from India, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand attended as observers.
China was clearly interested in the exercise, for the PLA Navy (PLAN) sent a Type 815 spy ship to monitor these advanced war games taking place on land, in the air and in waters around Australia. China is well within its rights to send spy ships. Indeed, it does so every two years to monitor Talisman Sabre, just as it does at the multinational RIMPAC naval exercise in Hawaii.
The sharp difference is that while China fully exercises internationally recognized rights to operate in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Australia, Beijing simultaneously screams blue murder when foreign warships pass through the international waters of the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. China unilaterally – without the backing of any international regulation – claims these waters as its own.
Lt Gen Greg Bilton, Chief of Joint Operations in the Australian Defence Force, told the media that he had dispatched a P-8 on the morning of 20 July to locate the Auxiliary, General Intelligence (AGI) vessel.
“We hailed the AGI, and we got a courteous response, as you’d expect from normal interaction in international waters. And we know it continues to transit towards this part of the coastline, and it will stay outside of our contiguous zone – so 24 nautical miles beyond [the coast]. That’s consistent with international law.”
He noted that Chinese behaviours on previous exercises have been consistent, “And I don’t expect that to change.”
Lt Gen Bilton said the Chinese had come down through the Coral Sea, and he expected the vessel to operate somewhere in the vicinity of the Queensland coast, maybe as far south as Shoalwater Bay. “So, I think it’s going to stay in the region to observe the activities we’re doing on the east coast.”
While most interactions between the Chinese military and others are done professionally at sea and in the air, there is an increasingly entrenched pattern of poor behaviour in zones that China illegally lays claim to, such as in the South China Sea.
The Chinese military, as does the China Coast Guard, can act aggressively and dangerously against foreign vessels. For example, a PLAN destroyer cut across the bows of the American destroyer USS Chung-Hoon during a transit of the Taiwan Strait in early June.
The US Indo-Pacific Command said the Chinese warship’s “closest point of approach was 150 yards and its actions violated the maritime ‘rules of the road’ of safe passage in international waters”.
China’s response was to rebuke the USA and Canada for “deliberately provoking risk”. Earlier, on May 26, a Chinese fighter carried out what the USA described as an “unnecessarily aggressive” manoeuvre near an American aircraft over the South China Sea. There have also been incidents of Chinese warships or vessels of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia shining lasers at aircraft cockpits. In other words, the Chinese is deliberately provoking and acting in an unprofessional manner.
ANI asked the Australian general whether the ship’s presence would constrain the multilateral exercise. “No. So, they’ll passively collect and we’ll adjust. There are some things we don’t necessarily want to give away, and we have methods of being able to employ our forces without giving those, I guess, more sensitive aspects of our training away.”
It is obvious that Chairman Xi Jinping has encouraged the PLA to be more aggressive in all realms. Whether this is along the mountainous border of India – where China has made territorial moves that caused bloody violence – to disputed waters in the South China Sea, China is flexing its muscles. Taiwan is bearing the brunt of Chinese coercion.
On July 13, for example, 33 PLA aircraft and nine PLAN vessels were detected by the Taiwanese military. Of the aircraft, 24 crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait or entered Taiwan’s southwest and southeast air defence identification zone. China has created a new norm, a new baseline, for aggressive flight paths and ship passages. These are designed specifically to cow Taiwan, and they reflect the ethos of an ultra-aggressive PLA.
This is the reality that the world now has to face. The PLA will not back down, for it has the full support of Xi to extend Chinese territory and influence. What is worse is that China hypocritically blames others for stoking tensions, when it is the true culprit.
This is cause for grave concern since the risk of accidents or miscalculations is growing. There are reasons why collision regulations at sea exist, and if Chinese warships deliberately flaunt and break them, the danger of an accident grows. Consider too that many Chinese crews are not greatly experienced, as the number of modern warships has expanded greatly and many sailors, and even officers, are relatively inexperienced.
As another example of its brazen behaviour, China broke the rules by sending high-altitude surveillance balloons crisscrossing all parts of the globe to gather intelligence data. Beijing vehemently denied culpability, despite a mountain of evidence against it. Not only that, but China has held the USA hostage, refusing to answer military hotlines and demanding that American behaviour change. This is gross hypocrisy, yet it all comes from the Chinese playbook.
The American-manufactured High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) is playing a key part in Exercise Talisman Sabre. On June 22, several American HIMARS fired live rockets, and scheduled later in the exercise is a HIRAIN activity.
HIRAIN stands for HIMARS Rapid Infiltration, a tactic where C-130 Hercules aircraft land a couple of HIMARS launchers in an austere location, where they disembark, fire long-range rockets, reembark and then fly off. The aim is to make it difficult for a hostile power like China to target American assets.
HIRAIN could be used on land links in the so-called First Island Chain – a geographic string of islands that stretches from mainland Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines all the way down towards Singapore. By deploying HIMARS, which currently has a 300km firing range, at strategic locations close to maritime chokepoints, the USA could constrain the PLAN’s ability to advance into the Western Pacific.
Significantly, Taiwan has ordered HIMARS from the USA, though it will not receive them until 2026. Sited on Taiwan’s western plains and mountain foothills, HIMARS could target Chinese landing beaches.
Furthermore, if Taiwan obtains the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), still under development by the USA and destined for HIMARS, it would have the potential to target Chinese landing zones, ships and even as far as 300km inland from China’s own coast. That means Taiwan could hit Chinese command-and-control nodes as well as embarkation areas, a genuine fear for the PLA.
HIMARS, therefore, has a deterrence effect to dissuade China from invading Taiwan. Yet China is not one to give up its dreams of conquering the democratic nation. The PLA is carefully watching how HIMARS is performing in Ukraine against Russia, and it is exploring ways to neutralize it.
Indeed, a military-affiliated periodical of a research arm of the China State Shipbuilding Corporation recently carried an article entitled “Countering HIMARS”. The article offered praise. “The HIMARS imported from the US frequently attacked ammunition depots, logistics centres and command posts in the Russian rear, and have had a definite impact on the battlefield situation.”
While wary of HIMARS, the article discussed ways in which the PLA can counter it. “To destroy HIMARS, active attacks are one method. Air supremacy is to be promptly established and based on the strategy of active attack; we will strike them with multiple rounds of firepower.”
One thing China noted from Russia’s failure in Ukraine is the importance of establishing air supremacy. This also helps explain all the PLA aircraft activity around Taiwan on a daily basis, as the military rehearses air operations.
“Observation and perception of the battlefield situation are crucial. It is necessary to first achieve air supremacy, prioritize obtaining intelligence and rely on information superiority to support an active mode of combat so that the opponent will fall into a passive position,” the article asserted.
The PLA would also deploy large numbers of drones and loitering munitions. These can detect HIMARS and either launch their own attacks or provide targeting information to fighter bombers. Taiwan is just one-seventeenth the size of Ukraine, and China has doubtlessly mapped the whole island; this reduces the manoeuvre and hiding spaces of Taiwanese HIMARS.
The Chinese article also advocated “active defence, including jamming guided munitions and enhancing our air defence capabilities, to achieve the effective intercept of guided munitions”. It continued: “Methods can be adapted to interfere with local information detection, acquisition, decision-making and other processes, or [China could] directly destroy enemy observation equipment, causing HIMARS to lose accurate targeting information.”
The USA is presumed to be supplying targeting information to Ukraine, and it would likely do the same for Taiwan in any conflict with China.
“The precise targeting information provided by the US may also become an important crutch for the Taiwan military.” However, Chinese analysts are expressing confidence that the PLA will be able to counter HIMARS.
The USA and its allies were slow to wake up to the military threat posed by China, but as Exercise Talisman Sabre 2023 demonstrates, it is attempting to make up for lost time.
Simultaneously, the scope and breadth of the exercises from July 21 to August 4 show the common goal of banding together against aggression and preserving the “rules-based order”.
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