KATHMANDU: Nepal’s largest political party, the Nepali Congress, is set to hold its 15th General Convention in December 2025. Based on its past track record and party statutes, it’s likely that an additional year will be added, and the convention could take place by December 2026.

Recently, Congress leader Shashank Koirala suggested that it would be appropriate to hold the 15th General Convention after the 2027 general elections.

The 15th General Convention will pave the way for new leadership within the party, as Sher Bahadur Deuba has publicly acknowledged his political retirement and will not contest for the presidential post. Deuba’s allies, as well as long-standing political rivals, are seeking his support for their leadership bids.

Deuba faces a dilemma, as he must decide whom to support in order to leave behind a political legacy. Many leaders from both his own camp and rival factions hope Deuba will back them.

Leaders from Deuba’s camp, including Purna Bahadur Khadka, Shashank Koirala, Bimalendra Nidhi, Prakash Man Singh, Prakash Sharan Mahat, and Krishna Prasad Sitaula, are all seeking Deuba’s backing for the presidency.

Party General Secretary Gagan Thapa, who has long challenged Deuba, is also attempting to get closer to him to seek his support for his own presidential bid. Dr. Shekhar Koirala has already launched his campaign for the next party presidency.

While eight leaders have expressed interest in the presidency, it is expected that the field will narrow down to three by the time the convention takes place.

All presidential hopefuls are seeking Deuba’s support rather than confrontation. Second-tier leaders from Deuba’s camp are increasingly consulting with and negotiating with potential presidential candidates to secure their positions and roles within the party.

It is widely acknowledged that no other leader within the party holds as strong a grip on the organization as Deuba. He has built a substantial political structure, and all presidential aspirants are seeking his blessing and public endorsement.

If Gagan Thapa successfully draws defectors from Shekhar Koirala’s faction and strengthens his position, he could benefit from an extended election timeline, giving him more time to build a stronger team. Conversely, if Deuba’s camp consolidates under a single leader, they could gain significant leverage.

Deuba has yet to openly support any candidate and has not hinted at promoting anyone as his successor. He has been playing the field among the leaders, assuring everyone while hopefuls intensify their efforts to gain his favor, including Gagan Thapa.

In Nepali politics, outgoing leaders often play a significant role in forming and disrupting inter-party alliances, leading to shifting dynamics.

Despite the current power structure within the Nepali Congress, the outcome of the 15th General Convention remains uncertain. It is still unclear how Deuba will emerge as a decisive force by the time of the convention. The result will depend on how united his team remains or if any members decide to break away.

General Secretary Gagan Thapa is also hoping for Deuba’s support, which could potentially lead to a rebellion within Deuba’s team as Thapa grows closer to him. Other leaders are attempting to position themselves as hopeful candidates for the presidency, even though there’s over a year left until the convention, which could be extended by another year.

Deuba’s hold within the party remains strong, and naturally, any presidential hopeful will seek his support. These hopefuls believe that securing Deuba’s endorsement will make their path easier.

While Deuba’s influence will undoubtedly play a crucial role, it is still uncertain how decisive it will be. If Deuba’s camp splits into factions, his endorsement could lose its power.

Should Deuba openly endorse any candidate in the future, the outcome may not be guaranteed, and he might refrain from endorsing anyone, leaving the choice to others.

Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka believes he is the natural successor to Deuba and is counting on his endorsement to become party president. However, Khadka has not yet built a strong team due to a lack of support and personnel around him.

While Deuba’s backing could help him gain support, victory remains uncertain due to Khadka’s growing unpopularity within the party. Most senior leaders from Deuba’s inner circle, including N.P. Saud, Prakash Sharan Mahat, Bal Krishna Khad, Mahalaxmi Upadhyay (Dina), Mohan Basnet, and others, remain distant from Khadka.

Although there are various speculations about the internal party dynamics, some Nepali Congress leaders have already started district-level programs in preparation for the next convention.

Deuba is a master of power politics, adept at balancing dynamics both within and outside the party. The question remains: whom will Deuba choose as his successor? Will it be someone from his own camp, or will he support Shekhar Koirala or Gagan Thapa? There’s also the possibility that second-tier leaders might shift the equation themselves to secure their political futures and power.

The role of influential second-generation leaders within Deuba’s camp, such as Balkrishna Khan and N.P. Saud, will be crucial in shaping the future leadership. Their decisions will significantly impact the upcoming 15th General Convention of the Nepali Congress.

Historically, in Nepali Congress, senior leaders chosen by the president—mostly his closest competitor within the party—have earned the “senior leader” title after losing elections, as seen with Sher Bahadur Deuba, Ram Chandra Poudel, and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai.

If these leaders defect from Deuba’s camp, it could put Deuba in a difficult position. Should more leaders leave, Deuba might avoid choosing sides altogether and support an independent candidate to maintain equal distance from all factions.

If Gagan Thapa successfully draws defectors from Shekhar Koirala’s faction and strengthens his position, he could benefit from an extended election timeline, giving him more time to build a stronger team. Conversely, if Deuba’s camp consolidates under a single leader, they could gain significant leverage.

Ultimately, the outcome of the 15th General Convention will depend on how effectively each camp operates as a cohesive team. Strong alliances and teamwork will determine who gains the upper hand in the next convention. Here’s a deeper look at the Nepali Congress’s next presidential hopefuls.

Will Dr. Shekhar Koirala Become the New President of Nepali Congress?

Dr. Shekhar Koirala is emerging as a prominent contender for the presidency in the 15th General Convention of the Nepali Congress. In recent months, Dr. Koirala has actively engaged in a series of political initiatives, confirming his intention to contest the party’s top leadership position.

He has publicly announced his candidacy for the party president in the upcoming 15th General Convention and is positioning himself as a significant figure within the party’s ongoing internal dynamics.

Currently, the Nepali Congress is divided into two dominant factions, both extending their influence from the central leadership to the grassroots level.

The faction led by Dr. Shekhar Koirala is the second most powerful after the faction led by party President Sher Bahadur Deuba. Dr. Koirala’s faction is highly organized and active, spanning both central and grassroots levels.

Dr. Shekhar Koirala, a prominent aspirant for the party’s presidency, has intensified his campaign efforts in preparation for the 15th General Convention. He has adopted a grassroots-focused approach, engaging directly with leaders and activists at the local, district, and regional levels to consolidate and expand his support base.

To further his bid for the Nepali Congress presidency, Dr. Koirala has formed a core team, established a campaign headquarters, and held closed-door meetings with influential leaders. He has consulted with key district-level leaders from over two dozen districts and conducted regional interactions in the Koshi, Sudurpashchim, and Madhesh Provinces, focusing on building support for his faction nationwide.

Dr. Koirala has been seen as a strong leader since the 14th General Convention of the Nepali Congress, continuing to lead a significant rival faction within the party.

In the 14th General Convention, Deuba was elected president with the support of virtually all senior leaders like Ram Chandra Poudel, Shashank Koirala, Prakashman Singh, Bimalendra Nidhi, Krishna Prasad Sitaula, Bijay Kumar Gachchdar, Sunil Thapa, and several smaller factions.

In the first round of the 14th General Convention, Deuba secured 48.3% of the vote, while Koirala received 36.4%. In the second round, Prakashman Singh (7.9%), Bimalendra Nidhi (5.3%), and Kalyan Gurung (0.5%) backed Deuba, allowing him to win with 59.1% of the vote, while Koirala lost with 40.1%.

Some senior Nepali Congress leaders have tried to stop Koirala, thinking that his rise to the top is due to the influence and blessings of former Party President Girija Prasad Koirala and his legacy.

Historically, in Nepali Congress, senior leaders chosen by the president—mostly his closest competitor within the party—have earned the “senior leader” title after losing elections, as seen with Sher Bahadur Deuba, Ram Chandra Poudel, and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai.

However, after the 14th General Convention, Shekhar Koirala has been treated differently. His rank within the party has diminished, and he now falls behind official barriers, nearly two dozen leaders ahead of him.

In the 12th General Convention of the Nepali Congress in September 2010, Sushil Koirala won with 54.81% of the vote in the first round, defeating Deuba, who received 42.66%. In the 13th General Convention in March 2016, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba defeated then Acting Party President Ram Chandra Poudel, securing 58.02% of the vote while Poudel received 41%.

Despite General Secretary Gagan Thapa joining the Deuba faction, Dr. Koirala has strengthened his own team by secretly including prominent leaders from the Deuba camp and continues his efforts to gain further support.

His activism and strategic outreach highlight his determination to secure the presidency at the 15th General Convention.

The Nepali Congress is marred by intra-party conflict and factionalism, with Deuba’s faction currently being the most dominant. However, Koirala’s influence is gradually increasing within the party.

Nepali Congress has historically been more factionalized than other political parties in Nepal, with multiple power centers within the party. There are not only factions but also various sub-factions within these factions.

Koirala’s growing influence within the Nepali Congress is already being felt by leaders close to the Deuba camp. Many influential Deuba camp leaders privately believe that Shekhar Koirala is their future leader. Deuba is aware that his faction should not split before he becomes Prime Minister, and his loyal leaders are adjusting accordingly. Koirala is hopeful that Deuba will endorse him in the next general convention.

It has become an obligation for Deuba to manage Koirala due to his growing strength within the party. Many leaders in the Deuba camp fear that, if Gagan Thapa becomes president, many factional leaders may be sidelined.

Dr. Shekhar Koirala, known as a “messenger politician” in Nepali politics, won central membership in the 13th General Convention of the Nepali Congress and is now seen as a potential candidate for the presidency in the 15th General Convention.

Dr. Koirala can easily ascend to the party’s helm if he succeeds in managing key leaders from both the Deuba faction and Gagan Thapa, who is also a presidential aspirant and is now building closer ties with Deuba.

In 2001, peace talks between the Nepali government and Maoist rebels failed. This led to a change in the mindset of then Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala, a staunch anti-communist politician.

Some senior Nepali Congress leaders have tried to stop Koirala, thinking that his rise to the top is due to the influence and blessings of former Party President Girija Prasad Koirala and his legacy.

Some party leaders believe that Shekhar Koirala has not made significant contributions to the party, while others are excited to see a new face rising to the top post of the party.

Dr. Shekhar Koirala is the son of Keshab Prasad Koirala, the brother of Nepali Congress founder BP Koirala, and the son of influential Congress leader Nona Koirala. Nona worked as a confidant of Girija Prasad Koirala for many years.

Dr. Koirala became active in politics only after 1990, especially serving as a messenger for BP Koirala and GP Koirala. He is well-versed in important issues such as Nepal’s internal politics, the geopolitical situation, and how to balance them effectively.

Koirala was defeated by Deuba in the competition between the first and second candidates who secured 50% of the votes cast in the first round. Leaders Bimalendra Nidhi, Prakashman Singh, and Kalyan Gurung, who were eliminated in the first phase, supported Deuba in the second round.

After Nepali Congress participated in the Maoist-led and now UML-led coalition, Deuba wanted to send Koirala as deputy prime minister and foreign minister. This time, Koirala proposed Arzu Rana as the foreign minister to create space for himself to gain goodwill from Deuba for his next presidential bid.

Sher Bahadur Deuba has not given the status of senior leader to his closest rival in the party, as he believes it would weaken his influence within the party.

Background of Shekhar Koirala

Shekhar Koirala’s full-time political career is relatively short, and he only emerged as a prominent figure during and after the peace process. Prior to that, Shekhar was primarily known as a messenger politician.

Shekhar Koirala was 10 years old when King Mahendra deposed BP Koirala on December 15, 1960. Due to his childhood, he was unable to play a significant role in the anti-Panchayat struggles.

However, he did play a part in conveying BP Koirala’s messages from prison to Indian leaders. Two decades after the establishment of the Panchayat, Chandra Shekhar, the then President of the Bharatiya Janata Dal, invited Shekhar to Delhi to study medicine through one of his assistants.

Politics has always been at the center of the Koirala family for decades in Nepal’s modern history. Besides politics, other matters, including family issues, have been secondary for the Koirala dynasties.

Shekhar also served as a contact person for the Maoists, carrying messages from Girija Prasad Koirala to initiate the peace process in Nepal. Initially, he arranged a meeting between Maoist leader Prachanda and Girija Prasad Koirala in Delhi.

In 2001, peace talks between the Nepali government and Maoist rebels failed. This led to a change in the mindset of then Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala, a staunch anti-communist politician.

He realized that the rebellion needed to be ended through peaceful negotiations and that King Gyanendra should be held accountable. To establish confidential contact with the Maoists, Girija selected Shekhar Koirala, along with trusted allies Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Amresh Kumar Singh.

Being a doctor, Shekhar frequently traveled to New Delhi, where the Maoist leaders were in hiding. Girija believed that the royal regime in Nepal would not suspect Shekhar’s involvement in the negotiations.

In November 2005, Shekhar Koirala traveled to New Delhi once again, this time accompanied by G.P. Koirala for a supposed “health checkup.” In reality, the purpose of their visit was to finalize the 12-point agreement that would bring the Maoists into mainstream politics under the leadership of the seven-party alliance led by Girija.

Shekhar had been exchanging messages between Maoist leader Prachanda and Girija for a long time, and the agreement was finally signed on November 22, 2005.

Shekhar Koirala was born into a family with a strong political tradition, with three previous generations having served as Prime Ministers. However, unlike most of his family members, Shekhar’s father Keshav was not involved in politics and worked as a forester.

Shekhar’s mother, Nona, was considered one of Nepal’s most influential women and made up for her husband’s lack of political involvement. Nona had long been a close confidant of Girija Prasad Koirala.

People familiar with Shekhar Koirala claim that he gained political insight while growing up in Biratnagar. However, they believe his true political education occurred while he was in New Delhi, where he interacted with prominent figures.

Shekhar studied at the prestigious All India Institute of Medical Sciences in New Delhi, and he believes that being a doctor made it easier for him to earn people’s trust.

He claims that politicians, regardless of their political beliefs, respected doctors because they knew they would require medical attention at some point. While in Delhi, Shekhar occasionally met with politicians like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Chandra Shekhar, who were known for their conservative beliefs and commitment to reform rather than radical change.

The internal power struggle within the Koirala family has yet to be resolved. However, it appears that Shekhar has remained unaffected by it, as he has succeeded in building a strong political camp.

However, some Congress leaders criticize Shekhar for being a traditional politician with an ideology but no clear plan for implementing it, claiming that he lacks the ability to make bold decisions. Shekhar transitioned into a full-fledged politician during the peak of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal.

Power Struggle within the Koirala Family: Inside the Story of Why the Koirala Family Is Not Ready to Support Shekhar Koirala as Their Successor

Politics has always been at the center of the Koirala family for decades in Nepal’s modern history. Besides politics, other matters, including family issues, have been secondary for the Koirala dynasties.

From the Koirala family, Bishweshwar Prasad (BP) Koirala led the Congress for 25 years, Matrika Prasad for 4 years, Girija Prasad for 14 years, and Sushil for 6 years. The Koirala family collectively led the Congress for a total of 49 years.

Shekhar Koirala, who has long been known as “doctor,” initially played the role of a messenger. He was not involved in a significant political career, which met with opposition from members of the political legacy of the Koirala family. When he decided to pursue a career in politics, his family did not fully support his decision.

After the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) with the Maoists and the death of his mother, who had viewed Nona as a rival, Shekhar gained prominence within the party.

Former Nepali Congress Party president and Prime Minister Sushil Koirala held a negative attitude towards Shekhar because he was Nona’s son.

After Girija’s passing, Sushil became the NC President and chose BP’s son, Shashanka, as the leader of the new generation of the Koirala legacy. Despite this, at the 13th convention of the Nepali Congress, Shekhar Koirala was elected to the central committee with the most votes.

Shekhar had previously hinted at running for the position of general secretary, but he ultimately decided not to challenge his cousin Shashank, Sujata, due to Sushil’s disapproval. Shekhar’s success at the convention was a clear indication that he is a rising political star within the party and may be considered for leadership positions in the future.

Many leaders in Congress believe that Shekhar is polite, civilized, and well-mannered, which makes him popular among the grassroots and central-level Congress cadres.

His active involvement in politics and manageable political lifestyle have given him an edge over his cousins Shashanka and Sujata.

However, the Koirala family is not prepared to unanimously endorse Shekhar Koirala. Leaders within the family were displeased with Girija Prasad Koirala’s decision to entrust secret responsibilities to Shekhar.

Shashanka’s son, Sujata Koirala, and Sushil Koirala have all made continued attempts to obstruct Shekhar’s rise to power.

Following Khand’s arrest, Gagan Thapa publicly praised the government’s actions and even used the parliamentary platform to thank the government. Thapa also lobbied for Khand’s suspension from the party’s central committee.

The internal power struggle within the Koirala family has yet to be resolved. However, it appears that Shekhar has remained unaffected by it, as he has succeeded in building a strong political camp.

After Shekhar emerged as the most active member of Krishna Prasad Koirala’s relatives in Biratnagar city, efforts were made by everyone to stop him. Sushil Koirala and other family members actively worked to prevent Shekhar from fully embracing the family legacy.

Girija Prasad Koirala had shown equal love and attention to his daughter Sujata and nephew Shekhar in different ways, which angered other members of the Koirala family. However, Girija could not express this in front of them. Shekhar was given the responsibility for most of the secret deals and negotiations with diplomats and foreigners.

Most of the leaders in the Koirala family reject Shekhar at any cost. This was evident in the 14th general convention of the Nepali Congress, where Sujata supported Prakashman Singh as the vice-presidential candidate in order to diminish the support for Shekhar’s camp.

In the second round, she switched her support to Deuba. Now, Sujata has publicly committed her support to Shekhar in the next general convention.

BP Koirala’s son and former party secretary general, Shashanka Koirala, also supported Deuba. Despite her attempts to return to active politics, Sujata was unsuccessful and was sidelined within a short period of time. Sujata may support Shekhar in the 15th general convention of the party, but her influence will not make a significant impact.

Bal Krishna Khand and NP Saud’s Shift from Deuba Camp Could Reshape Leadership in the 15th General Convention!

The upcoming general convention is poised to become a watershed moment for the dissolution of traditional factions within the Nepali Congress and the emergence of new factions, camps, and alliances.

The Deuba camp, in particular, faces the possibility of splintering into multiple groups, with one of the most significant factions likely to be led by Bal Krishna Khand.

Khand’s release from prison after a seven-month incarceration has ignited intense debate about his potential impact on the factional politics of the Nepali Congress party.

His arrest was tied to allegations of orchestrating fraudulent Bhutanese refugee schemes and facilitating their relocation to the United States—a controversy that continues to cast a shadow over his political career.

Khand believes that Deuba did not provide adequate support during his arrest. Despite this, he remains supportive of Deuba’s leadership and seeks to foster a better relationship with Dr. Shekhar Koirala.

Khand initially aspired to become General Secretary during the 14th General Convention, but factional politics and internal equations denied him that opportunity. Instead, Deuba appointed Khand as Home Minister in his government and assured him of future party leadership.

Khand also views the incident as part of a larger conspiracy within the Deuba camp, involving General Secretary Gagan Thapa’s faction, to undermine his political career and eliminate his potential bid for party president.

Following Khand’s arrest, Gagan Thapa publicly praised the government’s actions and even used the parliamentary platform to thank the government. Thapa also lobbied for Khand’s suspension from the party’s central committee.

Khand commands significant influence among party leaders and parliamentary members, positioning him as a pivotal figure who can play a key role in orchestrating larger changes within the Congress.

Currently, he is actively lobbying for a Deuba-Koirala alliance for the next general convention. However, if his efforts fail, with Deuba and Koirala aligning with different factions, Khand may shift his allegiance towards Dr. Shekhar Koirala.

This potential pivot would stem from the trust built during the critical and challenging times of his life in jail.

Following the 14th party general convention, Khand was considered a strong contender for party president during the 15th general convention before his arrest in Nepal’s most sensational fake Bhutanese refugee scandal.

Although he is no longer in the race for party president, Khand remains influential enough to secure a key role, such as vice president or secretary general, given his strong backing among grassroots Congress cadres and within factional Congress politics.

Khand feels betrayed by party president Sher Bahadur Deuba, General Secretary Gagan Thapa, and Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka, whom he accuses of sabotaging his political career.

Despite this, he remains one of the most powerful and popular leaders within the Deuba camp, holding a vast network across the nation and commanding significant support from the party’s central committee, the House of Representatives, and even local levels.

For years, Khand has been closely aligned with Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, which adds layers of complexity to his current stance and influence within the party.

Khand initially rose in Congress politics as a protégé of Girija Prasad Koirala. With Koirala’s backing, he successfully became the president of both the Tarun Dal and the Nepal Student Union.

However, following the split of the Nepali Congress and the formation of Nepali Congress (Democratic) on September 22, 2002, Khand sided with Deuba and has remained loyal to him since then.

From a young age, Khand engaged in establishing a nationwide network, building strong grassroots and organizational capabilities. Even now, with the backing of NP Saud, Khand’s influence within the party ranks third only to Deuba and Dr. Shekhar Koirala.

Any act of betrayal against Khand by Deuba or other senior leaders could destabilize the entire Deuba faction, triggering a political earthquake within the camp.

In the 14th general convention, Khand received one of the highest votes among central committee members, following only Shashanka Koirala (whose name appeared on all panels) and NP Saud.

Khand initially aspired to become General Secretary during the 14th General Convention, but factional politics and internal equations denied him that opportunity. Instead, Deuba appointed Khand as Home Minister in his government and assured him of future party leadership.

Khand played a pivotal role in ensuring Deuba’s victories as party president in both the 13th and 14th general conventions.

His unwavering dedication to Deuba’s leadership saw him willing to sacrifice personal ambitions, expecting little in return beyond the trust and camaraderie they shared. In recognition of Khand’s loyalty, Deuba gave him several key responsibilities, including ministerial portfolios of Irrigation, Defense, and Home Affairs.

Khand has become one of Deuba’s strongest allies and a leader highly regarded among grassroots cadres. He is often seen as a steadfast defender of Deuba, both within and outside the party, standing by him even in the most challenging circumstances.

As the 15th general convention approaches, Khand emerges as a decisive, critical, and strategically influential player. Although he operates discreetly, his role in shaping the outcome of the convention cannot be underestimated.

Whomever Khand chooses to support will likely benefit from his extensive nationwide network and deep grassroots connections, significantly impacting the party’s future dynamics.

Khand’s support for Gagan Thapa in the next general convention appears highly unlikely. Thapa, along with some members within Deuba’s inner circle, has long targeted Khand, perceiving his growing influence within the party as a threat to their leadership ambitions.

On the day of Khand’s arrest, Thapa escalated matters by directing his faction to meet Home Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha, demanding an impartial investigation into the fake Bhutanese refugee case.

During a parliamentary meeting, Thapa explicitly urged the government to prosecute party leaders implicated in the case, regardless of their positions, and openly praised the government and police for their actions against Khand.

Thapa has recently attempted to reconcile and garner Khand’s support, but the history of betrayal and the actions taken during Khand’s most critical moment make such an alliance unlikely.

Khand remains skeptical of Thapa’s intentions, and any potential support for him in the upcoming convention seems improbable.

Khand, alongside Saud, remains focused on maintaining positive ties between Sher Bahadur Deuba and Shekhar Koirala, and they plan to make their move at the right moment. If the Deuba-Koirala camp splits and forms separate factions during the 15th General Convention, both Saud and Khand are likely to side with Dr. Shekhar Koirala.

Following Khand’s arrest, Gagan Thapa repeatedly praised the government, a stance that contrasted sharply with Shekhar Koirala’s actions at that time. Koirala visited Khand multiple times in jail, offering reassurances and strengthening their political relationship. Koirala made all necessary efforts to secure Khand’s bail, demonstrating his support during a critical time in Khand’s political life.

General Secretary Gagan Thapa also exerted pressure on Deuba, publicly calling for the suspension of Khand from the central Congress committee.

In the 14th general convention, Khand received one of the highest votes among central committee members, following only Shashanka Koirala (whose name appeared on all panels) and NP Saud.

Khand has since been strengthening his ties with Saud, and both appear poised to align. If their alliance continues and they decide to shift away from the Deuba camp, it could create significant challenges within the party.

In Congress politics, Deuba may not hold a strong position within the party, but he still has near-complete influence in the Far West region.

There are severe disputes after his successor in the region, but the key leadership figure remains unclear as time runs out.

There is no rapport between leader NP Saud and Ramesh Lekhak, both representing Kanchanpur, as they are intent on outmaneuvering each other. While Deuba has assigned party and government roles to Lekhak, promoting him as a potential leader from the region, Lekhak lacks the grassroots influence within the party that Saud commands among most of Deuba’s leaders and cadres.

Saud has built a strong nationwide network since becoming Student Union president, giving him a clear advantage. On the other hand, Lekhak, a loyal Deuba ally, has gained a government and parliamentary role, which strengthens his personal position but limits his broader influence. Many in Deuba’s camp, including most party leaders, are not in favor of Lekhak.

Despite his efforts to secure the General Secretary position in the next general convention from all factions within the party, only Gagan Thapa and Purna Bahadur Khadka are considering him for the role.

This is largely because they are unable to form a panel or team and lack strong loyal leaders around them.

As Home Minister, Ramesh Lekhak’s role continues to grow with Deuba’s backing. NP Saud, along with Khand, may take preemptive steps to demonstrate their strength months before the party’s general convention.

Saud has built a strong faction within the party, gaining support from leaders at all levels, and has fostered key relationships with influential members of the central committee.

These alliances may enhance his political leverage in the future. Saud is well-positioned to secure the role of General Secretary or Vice President within any panel.

Many Congress leaders have speculated that Thapa may have created a “satellite party” in the past to further his ambitions of becoming prime minister, while weakening the Congress party.

Khand, alongside Saud, remains focused on maintaining positive ties between Sher Bahadur Deuba and Shekhar Koirala, and they plan to make their move at the right moment. If the Deuba-Koirala camp splits and forms separate factions during the 15th General Convention, both Saud and Khand are likely to side with Dr. Shekhar Koirala.

Their backing will be pivotal for any future party presidential hopefuls, given their strong support base among cadres and the considerable number of Deuba camp leaders behind them.

Gagan Thapa Prepares to Contest for Party President, Seeking Deuba’s Support as Successor in the 15th National Convention

Gagan Thapa, an emerging leader within the Nepali Congress (NC), has been viewed as a promising figure within the party.

With his success in NC politics and impressive oratory skills, Thapa has been regarded as a rising star, known for his dignified demeanor in the face of challenges.

Thapa, who will turn 49 at the upcoming convention, has repeatedly stated that he plans to retire from active politics by the age of 55. He aspires to become the party president in the upcoming 15th general convention, with the blessing of Sher Bahadur Deuba.

However, Thapa faces challenges within his own group. In the 14th Congress, he was elected General Secretary under the Shekhar Koirala-led faction, previously securing the same position within the Sitaula Group.

Recently, Gagan Thapa has experienced growing disputes with Dr. Shekhar Koirala and is now distanced from that faction. Thapa has been attempting to build a separate team but has yet to succeed.

Many leaders are unwilling to accept him as their leader, and they are hesitant to let the party fall under his leadership. Deuba, in particular, believes that the political future of his faction’s leaders remains unsettled, and he fears that Thapa’s ambitions could destabilize the camp.

Currently, within the Nepali Congress, Dr. Shekhar Koirala, who is from the same faction, has expressed his own desire to become party president and prime minister at least once.

This makes the possibility of Koirala supporting Thapa for the next party president slim. Koirala has been preparing for the next convention since the day he lost the party presidency.

If Thapa wants to rise to leadership, Koirala is likely to be supported by other leaders from the Deuba camp. Koirala’s presidency would pose a significant challenge to the older leadership figures.

Many NC leaders secretly believe that Thapa’s association with Rabi Lamichhane and the resulting fallout weakened the party’s chances in elections.

Despite his prominence as General Secretary, Thapa’s political career began to attract national attention as a student leader at Trichandra Campus.

Some key members of Lamichhane’s party who were once part of Thapa’s core team defected to support Lamichhane’s party, without offering any support to Thapa’s candidacy in his constituency.

Many Congress leaders have speculated that Thapa may have created a “satellite party” in the past to further his ambitions of becoming prime minister, while weakening the Congress party.

However, his ego clash with Lamichhane has grown significantly in recent months.

After most of Thapa’s team defected to Lamichhane, leaving his leadership in crisis, he began a confrontation with Lamichhane. This rivalry quickly escalated into a clash of egos, and the tension became evident in Thapa’s public image.

His tendency to align with different factions for personal gain, coupled with his persistent maneuvering, has exposed his contentious leadership style.

Thapa, who hails from a political family, contested for the post of General Secretary in the 13th Congress. However, his father-in-law, Arjun Narsingh KC, was his rival within another group.

Shashank Koirala, the youngest son of Congress founder BP Koirala, was elected General Secretary, defeating both KC and Thapa. Despite this, Thapa remains a rising star within the new generation of Congress leaders, known for his speech and style that have inspired optimism, even in the face of growing dissatisfaction with traditional political practices. Since aligning with Deuba, Thapa has largely remained silent on many key issues.

While there are still possibilities for Thapa’s rise, it remains difficult for him to become party president, especially when the older leaders within the party continue to play a “musical chairs” game for the NC president position.

No senior leader has seriously considered handing over the leadership to the younger generation.

In Nepali politics, none of the leaders have a succession plan, and they fear that their political space will diminish once handed over to the next generation.

Thapa has faced accusations of changing factions for personal gain, lacking credibility, failing to consider long-term consequences, and being financially opaque, with some alleging that he has relied on controversial parties for massive funding.

Nepali Congress Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka has been actively positioning himself to become the successor to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba in the party’s 15th General Convention.

Despite his prominence as General Secretary, Thapa’s political career began to attract national attention as a student leader at Trichandra Campus.

His role in the movement against King Gyanendra propelled his discussions into the national spotlight. Thapa, who was a member of Trichandra Campus’ Free Students’ Union in 2051 BS, later became its president four years later.

Bishwaprakash Sharma, the President of the Nepal Students’ Union, supported Thapa during this time.

In 2000, Thapa became the General Secretary of the Nepal Students’ Union, rising through the ranks of the organization. Thapa’s prominence grew during the 2006 people’s movement when he championed the issue of republicanism, even before the party officially adopted this stance. His legal troubles during that period brought him further attention and added to his political profile.

Thapa was elected as a proportional Member of Parliament in the first Constituent Assembly in 2008. In the second Constituent Assembly in 2070 BS, he was again elected from Kathmandu Constituency-4, despite a contentious political environment.

Thapa’s stature continued to rise after the defeat of former Vice President Nanda Bahadur Pun in his constituency. Subsequently, Thapa became the Health Minister in the government led by Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda.

Thapa solidified his influence in the previous parliamentary elections, where he won Kathmandu-4, defeating a UML candidate.

After the Left parties (Maoists and UML) formed a coalition government, Thapa became a prominent opposition figure in Parliament, which bolstered his popularity within the Nepali Congress.

His active participation in parliamentary debates, particularly against the Chairman of CPN-UML, KP Oli, contributed to his growing popularity. Thapa also expanded his influence by setting up his own research team, studying economics and other subjects, and building a network across the country.

In parallel, Thapa managed to secure funding from various sources, including timber smugglers and contractors, enhancing his political strength. Investors began to view him as a future leader.

Prime Minister Dahal even expressed interest in making Thapa the Health Minister again. However, both Deuba and Koirala opposed this move to limit Thapa’s rise.

Thapa has already prepared a strategy for his bid to become NC President and has amassed significant resources. Even without support from his own faction, Thapa still has a chance to become party president.

The division of candidacies within the Deuba and Koirala factions could lead to a competition between Thapa and Shekhar Koirala in the next convention. It is currently believed that Shekhar may not win the presidency, as he has already started forming alliances with other leaders, including Purna Bahadur Khadka.

However, Khadka’s future remains uncertain, as his political survival depends entirely on Deuba’s support. Thapa’s political future will largely depend on how he builds his team over the next three years, as well as the role Shekhar Koirala plays in the party’s leadership.

Deuba had nominated Khadka to fill the General Secretary position in the 13th Congress, and when Shashank Koirala was inactive, Khadka’s influence in Deuba’s team increased significantly.

It will be difficult for Thapa to win the NC presidency in the 15th session if he cannot form a strong panel and secure the support of senior leaders. If Deuba’s faction fractures and the Koirala groups do not support Thapa, but the Koirala faction itself splits, Thapa could garner the support of some selfish leaders.

If he manages this support effectively, his chances of victory could improve. However, a clear picture of Gagan Thapa’s chances of winning remains unclear.

Purna Bahadur Khadka at the Forefront as Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Successor

Nepali Congress Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka has been actively positioning himself to become the successor to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba in the party’s 15th General Convention.

Khadka, who has presented himself as the shadow president, has grown disillusioned with Deuba following the breakup of the Maoist-Congress alliance. He has already started taking initiatives to bring other leaders into his faction in anticipation of the upcoming convention.

Initially, Khadka had built a team that included leaders such as Bal Krishna Khand, but their relationship soured after Khadka was arrested, despite being the Deputy Prime Minister at the time. Despite his long political career, Khadka is not considered a particularly charismatic leader.

Before the elections, while Deuba was focused on running the government, Khadka was a dominant force within the party. After the election, however, Deuba felt that Khadka was unable to assert his leadership and might pose a threat to his own authority.

Although Deuba entrusted Khadka with engagement efforts with the Maoists, he did not share sensitive information with him, fearing a potential political crisis.

Khadka remains focused on strengthening his influence within the party, aiming to secure the position of party president by attracting leaders from Deuba’s faction to his side. Deuba has always believed that Khadka would support him, even though he has not officially named him as his successor.

Deuba is expected to publicly address his succession plans only after considering various factors, including geopolitical pressures, the future of his team, and other political arrangements. So far, he has not openly promised the position to anyone.

When Deuba becomes prime minister, Khadka hopes to hold both the party presidency and the executive presidency.

Deuba is also working to manage all factions within the party, seeking to maintain his grip and present a united front when he becomes prime minister again.

Khadka, who rose to central politics representing the faction of influential NC leader Khum Bahadur Khadka, has previously served as Joint General Secretary, General Secretary, and is now the party’s Vice President.

After Khum Bahadur Khadka’s death in 2018, Deuba nominated Purna Bahadur Khadka as General Secretary. After being elected Vice President, Khadka has set his sights on becoming president in the next convention.

Although Khadka seeks credit for his contributions, particularly after Prachanda became prime minister, he was one of the key figures tasked with negotiating with the Maoists.

Deuba mobilized various leaders—such as Krishna Prasad Sitaula, Gagan Thapa, Shekhar Koirala, and Sunil Thapa—to break the Prachanda-Oli alliance.

Leaders like Mohan Basnet and others from the Congress worked to neutralize influential Maoist leaders.

Khadka has a habit of speaking at length during meetings, particularly when Deuba is absent, trying to assert himself as the true architect of party gains.

However, he remains quieter in Deuba’s presence, often focusing on presenting his influence rather than the team effort. Khadka was nominated as General Secretary during the 13th Congress, and his role within the party grew thereafter.

Khadka’s influence within the Deuba camp grew even more during the 14th convention, particularly after Bimalendra Nidhi, a confidant of Deuba, challenged him for the party presidency.

While the dynamics of Deuba’s support remain unclear, Khadka believes that he would win if both Koirala and Gagan are nominated from the same group. However, the decisive factor will be the support he garners from Madhes Province and other key regions where his influence has not yet been fully established.

Deuba had nominated Khadka to fill the General Secretary position in the 13th Congress, and when Shashank Koirala was inactive, Khadka’s influence in Deuba’s team increased significantly.

Khadka was also appointed the coordinator of the “Law Amendment Draft Committee,” which was tasked with drafting the party’s constitution to reflect federalism. His prominence continued to grow, especially as the party’s presence in the Midwest expanded.

Khadka’s influence in Karnali has been significant. Leading up to the 14th convention, Khadka actively worked in Surkhet and surrounding districts, gaining ground in areas that were once dominated by other factions. He now controls leadership positions across several districts in Karnali, including Surkhet, Humla, Dolpa, Mugu, Jumla, Salyan, Jajarkot, and Rukum West.

Initially, Khadka sought to secure the Finance Ministry and the Deputy Prime Minister’s post. When those plans fell through, he aimed for the Home Ministry, but Deuba prevented him from obtaining that position.

Despite his aspirations, Khadka was instead appointed Defense Minister in a role he held for the first time in 18 years. He has also held a range of other ministerial positions, including Minister of Youth, Sports and Culture, Minister of Population and Environment, Minister of Commerce, and more.

Khadka comes from a politically influential family. His father was the deputy president of the district Panchayat. After completing his secondary education, Khadka pursued higher studies in Nepalgunj and Kathmandu, eventually earning a Master’s Degree in Economics.

He became a central member of the Nepal Students’ Union and was actively involved in the 2036 BS referendum and the 2046 BS movement.

During the time when the party was banned, Khadka contested local elections as a pro-people candidate and won. He was suspended from the Panchayat soon after, but during the political movement, he was detained multiple times and worked closely with then-Congress President Krishna Prasad Bhattarai.

Khadka entered politics in 2031 BS, and by 2034 BS, he was elected Surkhet district president of the Nepali Congress. He later became the Congress Surkhet President from 2044 BS to 2048 BS.

Khadka has been continuously winning elections from Surkhet since 2048 BS, though he lost in 2074 BS. He was re-elected in 2075 BS. Khadka has also served as a Member of Parliament and a minister following the restoration of multi-party democracy.

After the rise of the Maoists in 2064 BS, Khadka took a proportional path to enter the Constituent Assembly. He was again elected directly in 2070 BS, after the Maoists’ influence waned.

Despite lacking a strong personality and being seen as distant from party activists due to his personal habits, he may still wield some influence with voters, thanks to his legacy as the son of BP Koirala.

Although Khadka suffered his first defeat in the 2074 BS general election, he managed to win again in the subsequent elections, this time with the support of the Maoist alliance.

Khadka is now preparing to contest for the NC President in the upcoming convention. He seeks the support of all members of the Deuba faction and hopes that Deuba will endorse his candidacy.

While the dynamics of Deuba’s support remain unclear, Khadka believes that he would win if both Koirala and Gagan are nominated from the same group. However, the decisive factor will be the support he garners from Madhes Province and other key regions where his influence has not yet been fully established.

Shashank Koirala Hopes for Party Presidency with Deuba’s Endorsement

Although he has a legacy, Shashank Koirala is struggling due to his lack of personality and heavy reliance on Deuba. However, Shekhar Koirala’s potential rise could weaken him as well.

Shashank Koirala, the son of Nepali Congress founder and first elected Prime Minister Bishweshwar Prasad Koirala, is also vying for the party presidency. Despite his ambitions to become president during the 14th Congress of the NC, he was unsuccessful.

In that convention, while the other factions were fragmented, Shashank joined Deuba’s camp. Deuba wanted Shashank to run for the vice presidency on his behalf to consolidate the Koirala faction. Deuba used Shashank strategically, ensuring the Koirala camp remained unified under his leadership.

Shashank did not support his own brother Shekhar in the 14th Congress, and instead backed Deuba with the understanding that he would be made president in the next convention, rather than vice president.

Deuba’s strategy of preventing Shekhar, Sujata, and Shashank from uniting while still utilizing Shashank proved successful.

In the 14th Congress, Shekhar contested for party president, Sujata ran for vice president from Prakashman’s faction, and the Koirala camp, along with other groups, became further divided.

Shashank had initially agreed to be the deputy president of Deuba’s faction, but his close associate at the time, Minendra Rijal, advised against it. Deepak Khadka and others approved Shashank’s candidacy for vice president in Deuba’s group, but in the end, he did not win the position.

Shashank’s influence within Nepali Congress has been weakened because he has failed to build his own faction. However, he still hopes to become president with Deuba’s backing.

Her political adjustment and her choice of party president will play a vital role in shaping the upcoming general convention. The strength of her role will become clearer in the coming months, depending on how she builds her team and forms alliances with other factions, which will significantly influence her political future.

Despite lacking a strong personality and being seen as distant from party activists due to his personal habits, he may still wield some influence with voters, thanks to his legacy as the son of BP Koirala.

Deuba recognizes that Shashank is somewhat disconnected from the party’s rank-and-file, but his value remains. Deuba has not distanced himself from Shashank. Sushil Koirala tried to position Shashank as his successor but was unsuccessful.

Shashank’s relevance in the party’s top leadership will likely diminish if Deuba does not support him in the 15th General Convention. As the Nepali Congress leadership election heats up and strategies unfold among the active membership, Shashank’s influence appears limited, and he seems to be increasingly sidelined.

How Arzu Rana Deuba’s Role Could Shape the Next General Convention of Nepali Congress

Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba’s role within the Nepali Congress has grown increasingly influential in a balanced and pragmatic way. She has maintained close ties with most factions, whether large or small.

While many have speculated that her future could involve becoming the Party President or even the Prime Minister, she is not yet ready for such a move.

It is more likely that she will contest for the vice-presidency with one of the strong factions. Her role has become more strategic and thoughtful than ever before.

Before her appointment as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Arzu Rana Deuba had not actively pursued political advancement. However, she is now playing a key role in aligning her group with all rival factions and working behind the scenes to bridge differences across the party.

During the last parliamentary election ticket distribution, Rana was instrumental in managing intra-party disputes at the last minute, ensuring that the Koirala faction received more tickets, which helped balance the internal power dynamics within the party.

Her acceptance has been growing within all factions of the party, including those of Deuba, Koirala, Gagan Thapa, Prakash Man Singh, Shashank Koirala, and Krishna Prasad Sitaula.

She even requested Dr. Shankar Koirala to serve as Foreign Minister in a Congress-UML coalition before the Congress-Maoist coalition, though Dr. Koirala did not agree.

In August 2016, Dr. Koirala had demanded the Foreign Minister position during the Maoist-Congress alliance, but Deuba assigned the post to Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat instead. Since then, Koirala has focused on party work and has not prioritized reentering government affairs.

Rana’s role in the next election will largely depend on which faction Deuba chooses for his successor. While her influence alone may not be enough to make a significant impact, her ability to rally Deuba’s support will be crucial for any aspiring party president.

The President of the upcoming general convention is crucial because the NC President will not only influence the distribution of tickets for local, state, and union members but can also be seen as a potential candidate for the next prime minister.

Her political adjustment and her choice of party president will play a vital role in shaping the upcoming general convention. The strength of her role will become clearer in the coming months, depending on how she builds her team and forms alliances with other factions, which will significantly influence her political future.

How Should the Influence of the Sitaula Faction be in the 15th National Convention of Nepali Congress? What is Sitaula’s Strength?

Despite the fact that former General Secretary of Nepali Congress, Krishna Prasad Sitaula, could not prove his influence in mass and general elections, he is considered a skillful leader who can negotiate well in closed-door rooms within the Nepali Congress, achieving benefits for himself and adjusting his leaders within the party structure.

He could not win in the general elections to the House of Representatives, despite receiving the support of the 5-party alliance.

Even after losing the public vote less than two years ago, he contested in the National Assembly elections to assert his relevance in politics and await new opportunities.

The attitude and knack of the Sitaula faction, which holds closed-door meetings, will also have some impact on the upcoming 15th session.

Sitaula’s silent rise cannot be ignored in the factional politics within the Nepali Congress. Although the Sitaula faction is not a major player in the upcoming convention of the Nepali Congress, it will still have some influence.

If Shekhar Koirala, Gagan Thapa, and Purna Bahadur Khadka stand as presidential candidates, even a few hundred votes from Sitaula’s faction could make a significant impact.

NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba used to move Sitaula forward to avoid internal crises within the party, to negotiate on complex national political issues, and especially to convince the Maoists. Sitaula describes himself as a “crisis solver” within the Deuba camp.

Although able to hold an argument on any matter, coordinate, and reach agreements with disagreeing parties, Sitaula is seen as an opportunist, enjoys factionalism, and is a leader with a brash style.

Other presidential candidates may also contest for the sake of bargaining or for special purposes, aiming to prevent anyone from reaching 50 percent. By increasing their bargaining power, they will gain a special position within the party by supporting the eventual winner.

By gaining the confidence of Sher Bahadur Deuba and bypassing Gagan Thapa, Purna Bahadur Khadka, Shashanka Koirala, Shekhar Koirala, and other leaders close to Deuba, Sitaula took advantage of his people in the provincial and district leadership during the distribution of local election tickets.

The President of the upcoming general convention is crucial because the NC President will not only influence the distribution of tickets for local, state, and union members but can also be seen as a potential candidate for the next prime minister.

Sitaula, who understands politics very well, will certainly not remain silent in the upcoming convention. Seeking Deuba’s support for his own presidential candidacy, he will begin bargaining while keeping some factions apart.

NC leaders, including Bhimsen Das Pradhan, Uma Kanta Chaudhary, Keshab Kumar Budhathoki, Taraman Gurung, Kundanraj Kafle, Rupa BK, Sushila Thing, Sushila Sharma Dhakal, Dhana Khatiwada, Goma Bhattarai, and Bhim Parajuli in the Nepali Congress Central Working Committee, are close to Sitaula.

Party President Deuba nominated Sitaula, who did not become a candidate in the 14th Congress, as a central member, while Pradeep Paudel, who is in harmony with Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa, was also appointed.

Nepali Congress leader Sitaula is a person who focuses mainly on discussions in closed-door meetings, rather than expanding the organization.

He speaks according to Deuba’s mood and shows that he is doing something for the sake of the party. He had been very active in creating an “atmosphere” in his favor by aspiring to become the President of the Congress.

After his efforts did not bear fruit, he became distracted for a while and has stopped appearing at public functions for a long time.

He desperately tried to gain the Chairmanship of the National Assembly but failed at the last minute due to a Maoist U-turn. Sitaula, who is close to Nepali Congress party presidents Girija Prasad Koirala, Sushil Koirala, and Sher Bahadur Deuba, has a bitter relationship with Shekhar Koirala.

Now, Sitaula is trying to stop Koirala from becoming the next president. Leaders who were previously aligned with Sitaula, including Pradeep Paudel, are now in a dilemma about whether to support Koirala or align with Gagan Thapa.

Sitaula’s activism, the position he holds in the party, his relationship with Deuba, and other factors will determine the influence and power of his faction.

Currently, Deuba is building a good relationship with Sitaula to become stronger. By doing so, Deuba has succeeded in keeping other leaders in check, showing Sitaula and playing on conflicts to solidify his own power.

Meanwhile, Sitaula is managing the leaders close to him internally, attempting to show that his faction is decisive even in the upcoming convention, but his power is eroding within his party.

Within the Congress, it has become a trend to be a guest at party organization events, invited to public gatherings, and to appear to be in power only after factional gatherings.

Sitaula has been successful in power-sharing within the party, creating a small faction that he uses as a weapon for bargaining and transactions.

Sitaula is also trying to provide space for the workers and cadres close to him within the fraternal organizations. His faction may remain important in the upcoming internal elections of the Congress.

He is a leader who always prefers to work behind the scenes. He works from 5 am to noon, waiting at power centers, and can read the mood and psychology of others.

After Nepal’s peace process, Sitaula’s prominence grew in Nepali politics, but he is not a leader with the qualities to become the first man. Sitaula played a key role in the peace process and the creation of the constitution.

From Girija Prasad Koirala to Sher Bahadur Deuba, he is a leader who has worked with patience. He continues to reduce factionalism in Nepali Congress at the central and district levels and remains active in forming his own faction.

Even though Sitaula is weakening at the center, his influence has expanded from Jhapa to the provincial working committee. He has succeeded in making Uddhav Thapa the party president of Koshi Province and Deuman Thebe the District President.

By gaining the confidence of Sher Bahadur Deuba and bypassing Gagan Thapa, Purna Bahadur Khadka, Shashanka Koirala, Shekhar Koirala, and other leaders close to Deuba, Sitaula took advantage of his people in the provincial and district leadership during the distribution of local election tickets.

Thapa, the provincial president, was responsible for distributing tickets for municipalities, while Thebe, the district president, distributed tickets for rural municipalities.

Due to the interference caused by Sitaula’s factional practices, the Congress suffered a significant defeat in the local, state, and representative assembly elections in the east. Even in district politics, he is systematically defeating those aligned with Bishwaprakash Sharma or keeping them under control. Leader Sitaula has also promoted his son, Shyam Sitaula, in local politics.

Shyam Sitaula is entering local politics as the coordinator of the liaison committee of Jhapa-3. Bishwaprakash is not optimistic about improving his relationship with Sitaula, but his relationship with his son is improving.

However, since Sitaula has become weaker, there is little possibility of significant change. Sitaula maintains the most control in Jhapa-3, a key area in the internal party elections.

When Sushil Koirala became the party’s Acting President, Sitaula prevented Bishwaprakash from being nominated as a central member, and the rivalry between the two leaders continues. Sitaula played a role in nominating Bishwaprakash as the central member along with former presidents of the Nepal Students’ Union, Pradeep Paudel, Govinda Bhattarai, Gururaj Ghimire, and others.

Even though Sitaula stopped nominating the central member, he has still managed to become the General Secretary, though his panel remains weak.

For Sitaula, direct general elections have not been particularly favorable. He has won only 4 out of 8 elections since 2048 BS. Sitaula lost the elections in 2048, 2051, 2064, and 2079, while winning the parliamentary elections in 2050, 2056, and 2070 BS, as well as the National Assembly election in 2080 BS.

Born in Sangrati, Tehrathum in eastern Nepal, Sitaula has focused his political career around Jhapa.

Internally known as a crafty leader, Sitaula, who graduated in law and science, is also seen as a mysterious figure within the Congress.

He emerged as a leader from district politics to become the district president and later a central figure. Sitaula, who has been active in Nepali Congress politics since 2033 BS, entered parliamentary politics after the People’s Movement of 2046 BS (1990).

However, in his first parliamentary contest in the 2048 BS election, he lost to UML’s Drona Prasad Acharya in Constituency No. 1 of Jhapa by more than 4,000 votes.

After Acharya’s untimely death, mid-term elections were held in Jhapa in 2050 BS, in which Sitaula defeated UML’s Leela Udasi Khanal and became the MP.

He was appointed Minister of State for Industry, Commerce, and Supply in the government led by Girija Prasad Koirala in 2057 BS. However, shortly after, there was a split in the Congress, and King Gyanendra staged a coup.

During the king’s direct rule, Sitaula became close to Govinda Raj Joshi, an influential Congress leader at the time. After a corruption case was filed against Joshi, he weakened in the party, and Sitaula became Girija Prasad Koirala’s trusted confidant.

After being eliminated in the first round, Sitaula did not support Paudel. In the second round, Deuba and Sitaula stayed aligned, with Deuba securing 1,822 votes to be elected party president, while Paudel received 1,296 votes.

This relationship marked a turning point in Sitaula’s rise to national politics. He worked continuously with Koirala, becoming Girija’s key ally and playing a role in bringing Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai to Kathmandu in June 2006.

After Nepal’s peace process, Sitaula’s prominence grew in Nepali politics, but he is not a leader with the qualities to become the first man. Sitaula played a key role in the peace process and the creation of the constitution.

As a central figure in peace talks with the Maoists, he not only acted as a mediator between Girija Prasad Koirala and Pushpa Kamal Dahal but also contributed to drafting the constitution under the leadership of Sushil Koirala.

He also played an active role in drafting the interim constitution after the restoration of democracy. Additionally, as Home Minister, Sitaula negotiated with King Gyanendra to vacate the Narayanhity Royal Palace under the direction of then-Prime Minister Koirala.

After Girija Prasad Koirala’s death, Sitaula began to position himself as the successor. When the 13th Congress of the Nepali Congress was scheduled to begin in Kathmandu in 2072 BS, he started lobbying to become the common presidential candidate from the establishment faction as an alternative to Deuba.

At that time, Sushil Koirala and Ramchandra Poudel were presidential aspirants. General Secretary Sitaula, along with leaders like Prakashman Singh, was prepared to hand over leadership to Sushil Koirala. However, when Paudel’s name came up, Sitaula claimed to support Koirala instead.

In the 12th Congress of the Nepali Congress, held in 2067 BS, Krishna Prasad Sitaula had created a third faction within the party to gain power, arguing that the party had become too traditional, the ideology had become obsolete, and the methods were outdated.

After the death of Girija Prasad Koirala, who had led the party for a long time, a third strand emerged in Sitaula’s strategy, as he sought to gain power through bargaining with Sushil Koirala and Sher Bahadur Deuba.

The presence of the Sitaula faction was seen as intrusive, benefiting from the balance between Deuba and Paudel. Sitaula, who had been nominated General Secretary by supporting Sushil Koirala, later did not support Ramchandra Poudel, instead aligning with Deuba.

Within the party, Sitaula managed to maintain his influence by courting figures such as Prakashman Singh and Mahesh Acharya.

From fraternal organizations to sister organizations, some of these groups successfully maintained leadership positions or managed their people.

In the Sitaula faction, he included many younger leaders, such as Gagan Thapa, Umakant Chaudhary, Bhimsen Das Pradhan, Jagadish Narsingh KC, Pradeep Paudel, Kundanraj Kafle, Shiva Humagain, and Harsha Bam. Meanwhile, NC leader Bhim Bahadur Tamang also tried to create a faction similar to Sitaula’s during the 12th National Convention, forming alliances with figures like Narahari Acharya, Chakra Prasad Bastola, and Suprabha Ghimire.

However, that group suffered a humiliating defeat, which led to its eventual dissolution. Despite this setback, Sitaula gathered many people and gave rise to a new movement.

Until the 13th Congress, Sitaula was aligned with the establishment side. After the 12th National Convention, the then-President Sushil Koirala nominated Sitaula as General Secretary.

However, when Koirala passed away on the eve of the 13th National Convention, there was no consensual leadership within the establishment faction, which eventually split.

As time passes, Nidhi weakens day by day, and Nepali Congress seems unlikely to capitalize on the rare opportunity to elect a Madhesi leader as the party’s chief.

Sitaula played a key role in this division. On Falgun 19, 2072 BS, Sitaula announced a separate faction at Battisputli, promoting it as a “Third Pole” within the Nepali Congress party.

Sitaula not only led this third pole but also contested for the party presidency. His candidacy even shocked Paudel, who had been active in the same faction before its formation. Paudel, perhaps, was not a politician who could organize a cohesive team.

In the first round of voting, Deuba received 1,564 votes, Paudel got 1,160 votes, and Sitaula obtained 324 votes. According to the Nepali Congress party’s statute, since no candidate had a majority, a second round of voting took place.

After being eliminated in the first round, Sitaula did not support Paudel. In the second round, Deuba and Sitaula stayed aligned, with Deuba securing 1,822 votes to be elected party president, while Paudel received 1,296 votes.

Since then, Sitaula has maintained a close relationship with Deuba. They have moved forward together in conventions of the sister organizations.

The Deuba-Sitaula equation was established during the 2073 BS convention of the Nepal Student’s Union (NSU), where Nainsingh Mahar of the Deuba faction was elected president, while Kundan Kafle of the Sitaula faction was elected general secretary.

The Deuba-Sitaula alliance won the majority of office-bearer positions in the NSU.

When the 14th National Convention came, Sitaula advanced his team alongside Deuba. Together, they moved forward in the 2073 BS Nepal Women’s Association convention, where the Deuba-Sitaula alliance achieved a “clean sweep.”

The Deuba-Sitaula faction was aligned when it came to nominating central members or forming departments. When nominations were made, Sitaula appointed Shiva Humagai as a central member, and Sudhir Siwakoti and other leaders were also invited to join as central members.

However, in the 2074 BS election, the Deuba-Sitaula relationship became strained.

Sitaula rejected Deuba’s request for him to be a proportional member of parliament.

Deuba’s plan was to form an alliance with the RPP in Jhapa, with Sitaula included in the proportional list. However, Sitaula went to Jhapa, stating that he would contest the election himself.

The UML decided to support the RPP in Jhapa Constituency-3, and Sitaula was defeated by Rajendra Lingden of the RPP, who had the support of CPN-UML.

The Sitaula group was divided in the parliamentary party election in Falgun 2074 BS. Leaders, including Bhimsendas Pradhan, voted for Deuba.

After the election of the 2074 Nepal Teachers’ Association and Trade Union Congress, the Sitaula faction joined with other factions.

Whether in the 13th National Convention, the NSU convention, the Nepal Women’s Association, or the conventions of the Teachers’ Union and the Trade Union Congress, Sitaula achieved success.

Analyzing Sitaula’s entire political track record, he is seen as a figure who could play a significant role in the upcoming 15th session and make an impact, even with a small number of supporters.

However, if Deuba does not give much attention to Sitaula and becomes weaker, especially in the sister organizations of Nepali Congress, Sitaula could lose his bargaining power and become a leader without influence.

The degree of attention Deuba gives to Sitaula will determine his future influence within the party.

What will be Bimalendra Nidhi’s status in NC’s 15th Convention?

Bimalendra Nidhi, once widely considered the successor to Sher Bahadur Deuba in the Nepali Congress Party and a long-time second-in-command in Deuba’s faction, was sidelined before the 14th General Convention.

The upcoming 15th General Convention will be a make-or-break moment for his political career.

The ups and downs in the Deuba-Nidhi relationship began during Nidhi’s time as Home Minister. The relationship between the two leaders was cordial and smooth until the KP Sharma Oli-led government was overthrown and the Congress-Maoist alliance formed a new government.

As time passes, Nidhi weakens day by day, and Nepali Congress seems unlikely to capitalize on the rare opportunity to elect a Madhesi leader as the party’s chief.

Bimalendra Nidhi is the son of the late Mahendra Narayan Nidhi, a prominent figure in Nepali politics and a Gandhian leader. However, Bimalendra’s family legacy has not been enough to attract strong support from party leaders or the broader cadre.

Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba has a hidden strategy and desire to discourage Bimalendra Nidhi, who was previously seen as his successor for a long time before the 14th National Convention, until Nidhi left Deuba’s camp.

Until a couple of years ago, the basis of political qualification within the NC was family legacy, a history of imprisonment, and loyalty to the main leader of one’s faction.

Bimalendra Nidhi possesses all these qualifications, along with the slogan of inclusive democracy, which has become decisive in Nepal’s politics in recent years.

Additionally, being the leader of the Madhesi community would typically work in his favor. But within the Congress, this has not been the case.

He has become very weak because he has been unable to form a strong faction around him, failed to win Deuba’s trust, and has not garnered support from the cadres.

Nidhi’s weakness lies in his tendency to become easily satisfied with a limited circle within Deuba’s camp, so he does not prepare well for anything.

Leaders such as Mahendra Yadav, Ananda Prasad Dhungana, and others who supported him earlier have also left him, meaning he no longer has the support of leaders with a base in the Madhesi Province.

He did not contest the direct elections and came to the House of Representatives through the Proportional Representation system.

The NC’s General Convention has shattered his illusion that he is an influential leader of the Madhesh community within the Nepali Congress or that he has broader support. His belief that he is a pillar in Madhesh has also been broken.

Even after Ram Baran Yadav became President and Mahantha Thakur and Bijay Gachchadhar quit the party, there was no other Madhesi leader of equal political stature within the Congress, but he could not leverage this for his benefit.

Nidhi, who has historically been capable of setting agendas, arguing persuasively, and reaching decisions by gaining consensus, has now fallen into the shadows due to a lack of a solid position within the party.

Bimalendra Nidhi will turn 70 during the 15th General Convention of the party and finds it difficult to form a panel as he is now.

In the name of Madhesh, he could become his own alternative and challenger within the Congress, or he may fail to build his own faction and remain only an ally of Deuba.

NC President Deuba is focused on making his allies leaders and securing the position of Prime Minister for himself, while also bringing in a president of his choosing, rather than promoting someone as the future leader.

Nidhi is not seen as Deuba’s choice.

Nidhi, who was one of Deuba’s closest confidants for a long time, was once considered Deuba’s “Chanakya.” He arranged many secret meetings and discussions to form a ruling alliance that would strengthen Deuba. Nidhi also used to handle negotiations with both internal and external power centers. After making a political leap to secure a good ministry, Nidhi has now become very weak, despite his past efforts.

Nidhi has not been able to win Deuba’s heart. He is now overshadowed by party activities, and because he lacks a team, he is growing weaker among the workers each day.

To some extent, his son Bimalendra entered the politics of the Nepal Students’ Union with the support of Upadhyaya and Koirala. This is what drew BP’s attention to him.

The ups and downs in the Deuba-Nidhi relationship began during Nidhi’s time as Home Minister. The relationship between the two leaders was cordial and smooth until the KP Sharma Oli-led government was overthrown and the Congress-Maoist alliance formed a new government.

According to the agreement between the two parties, the government was formed under the leadership of Pushpa Kamal Dahal in the first phase, with Nidhi serving as Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister.

However, conflict between Deuba and Nidhi surfaced over the appointment of the Inspector General of Police. The dispute over whether Nabaraj Silwal or Jaya Bahadur Chand should be made IGP caused a heated argument between the two.

While Deuba favored Chand, Nidhi supported Silwal, leading Deuba to believe that Nidhi had crossed him.

Deuba thought that this issue escalated unnecessarily, eventually involving the courts and causing various twists and turns, including the impeachment of then-Chief Justice Sushila Karki, the dismissal of the impeachment, and a defamation trial against Deuba.

When Deuba realized that everything was progressing because of Nidhi, he abandoned his own team and rose to the presidency, weakening Nidhi completely.

Deuba, who has experienced many political ups and downs, understands Nidhi’s behavior well and believes that Nidhi has no clout without his support.

Nidhi became the President of the Nepal Students’ Union (NSU) after Deuba. He aspired to become the party president as he had in the NSU, but now he is not in a position to show that kind of influence, although he has not given up hope.

BP Koirala had vetoed Nidhi as president at the Janakpur session of the NSU in 2036 BS. At that time, 60 percent of the convention representatives favored Benup Raj Prasai, but BP projected 23-year-old Bimalendra as the central president of the NSU and as a future leader.

At that time, BP’s decision to make Mahendra Narayan’s son the president of the NSU became a topic of discussion within the Congress.

Bimalendra, as the son of Mahendra Narayan Nidhi and a beloved worker of BP, gained political status as the president of the NSU. Nidhi’s rise in politics was unexpected for many.

After Girija Prasad Koirala became the President of the Nepali Congress, Bimalendra Nidhi began openly opposing him. His father, Mahendra Narayan Nidhi, who had become the General Secretary of the Congress, remained close to Krishna Prasad Bhattarai.

Later, when the legacy of the Bhattarai camp shifted to Deuba, Bimalendra became a pillar of this camp.

Both Deuba and Nidhi were considered by older Congress members to be the leaders projected by BP Koirala. There are still Congress members who believe that BP made Deuba a national leader after the general meeting in Dhangadhi, and elected Bimalendra in Janakpur.

However, with the emergence of a new party, the number of people who believe in this legacy has diminished.

Bimalendra Nidhi, who openly supported Chiranjibi Wagle, who ran for president against Girija Prasad at the NC’s ninth convention in 2053 BS, succeeded in becoming a central member of the Congress in that same convention.

Since King Mahendra’s coup in 2017 BS, there were two factions of Congress in Janakpur. One faction was led by Mahendra Narayan Nidhi, while the other was led by Bodh Prasad Upadhyaya and Saroj Koirala.

Mahendra Narayan, a proponent of non-violent politics who disagreed with BP’s line of armed struggle, had a limited following.

Gachchadhar strongly supported Deuba when the Congress split. Deuba nominated him as the Joint General Secretary of the Nepali Congress Democratic party.

To some extent, his son Bimalendra entered the politics of the Nepal Students’ Union with the support of Upadhyaya and Koirala. This is what drew BP’s attention to him.

After the 2036 plebiscite, some openness began to polarize within the Congress. Mahendra Narayan’s role in the party grew as BP made Krishna Prasad Bhattarai the acting president.

He was the leader of one faction in Janakpur, while the Lile Koiralas group came under the leadership of another. This arrangement benefited Bimalendra, who had already made his mark in politics.

Over the course of his political career, Nidhi not only had the family legacy to support him, but he also established himself as a leader through his own struggles.

He did not seek a ticket until his father contested the election, when other leaders would stand in different places. In the mid-term elections of 2051 BS, he became an MP for the first time from Dhanusha-4, the constituency previously held by his father.

However, he was defeated in the 2056 BS election from the same constituency. He later won from Dhanusha-3 in the 2064 BS and 2070 BS Constituent Assembly elections.

The main reason he left Dhanusha-4, which includes Janakpurnagar, was due to changing political dynamics. However, he gradually became weaker in his own constituency.

Although he belongs to the Madhesi community, he was once a person who represented the entire party organization of the Congress.

But now, the situation has changed. Bimalendra did not learn the lesson that he could not form factions, could not manage his close allies within the party, nor could he connect with the people.

As a result, he has become weaker day by day, making it virtually impossible for him to become the next party president of the Nepali Congress.

Mahat Also Prepares for Party Presidency

Nepali Congress spokesperson Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat, who also has a close relationship with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, is separately initiating his party presidency bid.

Mahat is unwilling to accept the candidacies of other leaders endorsed by Deuba in the upcoming general elections and is hopeful for Deuba’s endorsement.

He aims to form a pro-Deuba alliance for the next election. Mahat is not prepared to support other candidates, such as Purna Bahadur Khadka or Gagan Thapa, if they are endorsed by Deuba.

What Influence Might Gachchadhar’s Faction Have in the Next General Convention?

Two decades ago, a group called “AKGB” was quite popular in the Nepali Congress. The AKGB included Arjun Narsingh KC, Khum Bahadur Khadka, Govindraj Joshi, and Bijaya Kumar Gachchadhar.

Only two leaders from this group, KC and Gachchadhar, are still active in the Nepali Congress, but they too are aging and becoming weaker lately.

The very minor influence of Bijaya Kumar Gachchadhar will continue until the next general convention of the Nepali Congress, which remains riddled with factional politics.

Although Gachchadhar has become weaker due to age, corruption issues, and other factors, his influence is still present to some extent. After being out of the Congress for about seven years, Gachchadhar’s group, brought back by Sher Bahadur Deuba, had a significant impact on the 14th Congress and became a key tool for Deuba to secure the party presidency.

At the time of the party’s unification with Congress, Gachchadhar’s Democratic Forum claimed to have an organization in 63 districts.

It is unlikely that Deuba will back Gagan Thapa, as most of the leaders in his own faction are unlikely to support such a decision. Even with Deuba’s endorsement, many leaders within his camp may resist aligning with Thapa, making the move both contentious and improbable.

The greater impact of Gachchadhar was seen in the Terai-Madhesh districts. Those who came from the Democratic Forum were given roles in the district working committees, including vice-chairmanships in Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Saptari, Sarlahi, Parsa, Bara, Dang, Banke, Bardia, and Kailali.

Gachchadhar strongly supported Deuba when the Congress split. Deuba nominated him as the Joint General Secretary of the Nepali Congress Democratic party.

Gachchadhar, who had left the Congress when Girija Prasad Koirala was president, was brought back by Deuba, and he became the party president of the Madhesh-Tharu-centric party.

Gachchadhar may still have some influence in the Congress’ 15th General Convention. The Gachchadhar faction, though not particularly strong within the Nepali Congress, is sure to participate and try to secure positions for their people.

However, their influence in the upcoming convention is likely to be minimal, and they may only have a small impact on the outcome.

Conclusion: Deuba’s Endorsement Will Be Vital, but Not Enough to Secure the Presidency, as Multiple Factors Influence the Outcome

The current factions, panels, and equations within the Nepali Congress are likely to collapse ahead of the 15th General Convention.

Leaders will attempt to align with one another and attract members from opposing camps to gain the upper hand.

Significant shifts and realignments are expected within the party in the coming months.

Deuba is unlikely to fully relinquish leadership power without securing space for his loyal leaders to influence the party’s future political course. Dr. Shekhar Koirala may potentially draw key leaders away from Deuba’s camp.

Although eight leaders from the Nepali Congress are vying for the party presidency, only three serious contenders are expected to emerge: Dr. Shekhar Koirala, Gagan Thapa, and either Purna Bahadur Khadka or Shashank Koirala. Deuba may consider supporting Dr. Shekhar Koirala in the near future if Deuba gains the upper hand and secures significant adjustments for his loyal leaders.

Some key figures, including central members, members of the House of Representatives, and senior district leaders loyal to Deuba, are now gradually leaning toward Dr. Shekhar Koirala.

Even some leaders close to Deuba believe it is Koirala’s turn and advocate for a strategic power-sharing arrangement between Deuba and Koirala, ensuring future leadership while accommodating significant posts for Deuba’s loyalists.

Dr. Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa are unlikely to unite unless Thapa steps back from his aspirations for leadership of the Congress. Deuba’s strategy has consistently focused on dividing Koirala and Thapa to weaken his internal rivals and solidify his position, ensuring a favorable deal with either leader.

The Thapa-Koirala faction, which once challenged Deuba during the Nepali Congress 14th General Convention, is no longer intact.

In recent months, Gagan Thapa has refrained from criticizing the government or Deuba, signaling his desperation to gain Deuba’s support for his leadership ambitions.

However, Thapa lacks a strong team within the party, and his attempts to align with Deuba’s camp face significant challenges.

The political settlements of leaders like Arzu Rana, Bal Krishna Khad, N.P. Saud, Ramesh Lekhak, Bir Bahadur Balayar, Prakash Sharan Mahat, Mohan Basnet, Gyanendra Bahadur Karki, among others, will also require Deuba’s facilitation or personal deals to secure their political futures ahead of the 15th General Convention.

His unusual silence further reflects his calculated intention to secure favor from Deuba, despite the apparent difficulty in doing so.

It is unlikely that Deuba will back Gagan Thapa, as most of the leaders in his own faction are unlikely to support such a decision. Even with Deuba’s endorsement, many leaders within his camp may resist aligning with Thapa, making the move both contentious and improbable.

Deuba currently perceives a significant threat from the parliamentary party, especially if Koirala and Thapa join forces.

Any defection from his camp could lead to a reshuffling of alliances and an unpredictable outcome.

Despite his short-term tactical alliance with Deuba, Gagan Thapa may find himself in a challenging position in the near future. He may struggle to form a strong panel, may not return to the Koirala camp, and is unlikely to secure Deuba’s endorsement.

Thapa’s recent moves have also drawn the attention of geopolitical forces, which are now closely monitoring his actions.

Bimalendra Nidhi, Prakash Man Singh, Shashank Koirala, and Krishna Prasad Sitaula remain hopeful of receiving Deuba’s support.

However, Deuba fears they may not win even with his endorsement. Relying solely on legacy is unlikely to guarantee success in Congress leadership, and their political relevance may diminish after the next Nepali Congress general election.

As per the party constitution, Deuba cannot contest for party president in the next convention.

Instead, he is expected to strike strategic deals to support the winning president in exchange for securing key positions for his loyalists and maintaining his influence in the party’s future.

If this strategy fails, Deuba may be compelled to back Purna Bahadur Khadka or Shashank Koirala, aiming to ensure that someone from his camp ultimately prevails.

In Nepal’s politics, what appears on the surface is rarely real, and what seems invisible often holds the true power. Most of the Nepali Congress intra-party dynamics play out as opaque.

The political settlements of leaders like Arzu Rana, Bal Krishna Khad, N.P. Saud, Ramesh Lekhak, Bir Bahadur Balayar, Prakash Sharan Mahat, Mohan Basnet, Gyanendra Bahadur Karki, among others, will also require Deuba’s facilitation or personal deals to secure their political futures ahead of the 15th General Convention.

Deuba’s wife and Congress leader, Arzu Rana, is maintaining a balanced approach toward all major factions, strategically positioning herself to enhance her acceptance and influence within the party.

Other Deuba camp leaders are actively negotiating with other factions to secure their political future and power positions within the party.

It is expected that the outgoing leadership will appear weak, and many second-tier leaders may not adhere to the established line.

Significant defections from Deuba’s camp are likely, similar to the Ram Chandra Paudel factions in the 14th General Convention, as leaders prioritize their own political benefits and align with opposing factions to secure favorable positions and advance their future ambitions.

It is too early to predict the next president of the Nepali Congress, but the emerging scenario is becoming increasingly clear.

Smaller factions within the Congress are maneuvering to maximize their political gains, either by splitting off or merging with other factions to strengthen their positions, reflecting the self-interests prevalent in politics.

The geopolitical implications of the Nepali Congress elections cannot be denied, as the party is the largest and oldest democratic force in the country.

The question of who will lead the Congress carries significant importance for many nations. Unfavorable leaders could face sabotage attempts by external forces seeking to influence the outcome.

Despite numerous visible political factions and equations within the Nepali Congress, the outcome will remain uncertain until the final minutes.

Backstabbing, cheating, deception, power-sharing promises, and last-minute backroom deals are expected to dominate in the eleventh hour.

In Nepal’s politics, what appears on the surface is rarely real, and what seems invisible often holds the true power. Most of the Nepali Congress intra-party dynamics play out as opaque.