Russia has reportedly stopped recruiting Nepalese nationals for its army and terminated the contracts of those currently serving.

However, it has not disclosed the number of Nepalese soldiers in its forces, the casualties suffered, or initiated compensation for the affected families.

There were suggestions in Nepal that the war was unlikely to impact the nation at all when Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022.

However, the recruitment of Nepali citizens into the Russian army has sparked significant media and public attention in the Himalayan nation, particularly because Nepali law permits its citizens to serve only in the British and Indian armies.

Despite this restriction, many Nepalis have been drawn into the conflict, with reports suggesting that nearly 16,000 have joined Russia’s military since the war in Ukraine began.

Many returnees from the Russian army who managed to escape estimate that nearly 16,000 Nepalis have enlisted. According to reports, 174 Nepalis in Russia have safely returned home.

Yes, Nepal is the first largest country contributing troops to the United Nations Peacekeeping Forces all around the world. But Nepal does not send its military to non-U.N. missions.

This outflow has been driven by lucrative incentives, including a monthly salary of $2,000 and fast-tracked Russian citizenship, attracting individuals from one of the world’s poorest countries.

Nepali students in Russia were the first to enlist as mercenaries in the Russian army, followed by migrant workers from the Gulf and Europe. The news led many unemployed youth in Nepal to join as well.

Following Russia’s attack, the Nepal Foreign Ministry issued a strong condemnation, stating, “Nepal unequivocally opposes any act of aggression or use of force against a sovereign nation.”

In May 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree that streamlines the process for foreign nationals to acquire Russian citizenship if they serve in the military during the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The decree allows these individuals and their families to apply for citizenship without the requirement of a residence permit.

Many Nepalis were lured into joining the Russian military under false pretenses, often facilitated by human traffickers charging $1,500 to $2,500 for promises of lucrative employment.

These individuals entered Russia on student or tourist visas but were instead funneled into military service.

Serious questions emerged about Nepali authorities as recruitment agencies sent an increasing number of people.

Concerns were also raised about the police and immigration officials for their inability to stop human traffickers from committing these crimes.

Tragically, nearly 50 Nepalis have reportedly died on the front lines, and many others remain hostages or injured, raising serious questions about the adequacy of Nepal’s foreign policy and diplomatic efforts to protect its citizens and initiate repatriation.

Many who were caught while attempting to escape took their own lives, seeing no hope for the future.

In September, the BBC’s Russian unit said that more than 70,000 people fighting in Russia’s military have now died in Ukraine, and for the first time, volunteers – civilians who joined the armed forces after the start of the war – “now make up the highest number of people killed on the battlefield” since the invasion began in 2022.

The Nepalese government has condemned the recruitment of its citizens into the Russian army, calling it illegal and affirming that no bilateral agreements permit such actions.

Despite repeated diplomatic notes and appeals to Russia, Nepal has struggled to secure commitments on repatriation or compensation for the victims and their families.

The challenges faced by Nepalis in the Russian army are immense. Many received inadequate training and lacked combat experience or proficiency in the Russian language, leaving them vulnerable on the battlefield.

It is not uncommon to hear migrants being cheated, trafficked, forced to work in terrible conditions, and sometimes even physically abused by employers.

The remains of five Nepali soldiers killed in the conflict were recently repatriated, but families continue to await news about their loved ones, with over 300 requests for repatriation filed with the Department of Consular Services.

Protests and hunger strikes by families of the recruited soldiers highlight their frustration with what they see as insufficient government action.

Demonstrators have submitted memorandums to both the Nepali government and the Russian Embassy, demanding the safe return of their loved ones and financial relief for those affected by the war.

Nepal’s government has taken steps to curb the recruitment of its citizens, including requiring no-objection letters for travel to Russia via third countries and halting work permits for jobs in Russia.

Although these measures have lowered recruitment numbers, there is no update on efforts to bring those individuals back home.

Diplomatic efforts have included former Foreign Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha’s direct talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, where he requested expedited compensation and the safe return of Nepalis serving in Russia.

Similarly, former Foreign Minister Nayan Prakash Saud raised the issue with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vershinin Sergey Vasilievich during the Non-Aligned Summit in Kampala.

“We have expressed our concerns to the Russian government, and appealed for the return of our citizens killed in war and Nepali soldiers currently serving in the Russian army,” Saud said.

“We are also requesting that Ukraine release Nepali prisoners of war. Nepal is a peaceful country, and we have no intention of taking part in this war.”

These efforts have yielded some progress, such as Russia’s agreement to compensate the families of deceased Nepalis, but the process remains slow and fraught with bureaucratic hurdles.

Diplomatic efforts must intensify to ensure the safe return of Nepalis serving in Russia, adequate compensation for victims, and stronger preventive measures to protect vulnerable citizens from exploitation in the future.

Key factors driving Nepalese youth to seek opportunities abroad, its impact

Nepali migrants have never been strangers to wars and conflict, starting from the two World Wars, in which almost more than 100,000 Gorkhas were recruited to fight for the British armies across the world.

The decision of many Nepalese youth to join the Russian army can be attributed to various socio-economic factors and systemic challenges within Nepal.

The situation underscores the vulnerabilities of Nepalis seeking better opportunities abroad, driven by economic hardships and limited prospects at home.

With Nepal ranked among the poorest countries globally and its passport offering minimal global mobility, many youths find the risks of such jobs outweigh their grim realities at home.

Employment crisis and economic hardship

Nepal faces a severe lack of employment opportunities, forcing countless young people to leave the country.

Each year, the number of Nepalese youth migrating abroad, both legally and illegally, continues to rise. This mass exodus poses significant security concerns for Nepal and its neighbors.

Out of Nepal’s population of 30 million, an estimated 3.5 to 8 million youths work in India, while 5 to 6 million others are employed in countries such as Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and South Korea.

In the fiscal year 2022-23 alone, over 750,000 youth departed Nepal for foreign employment, a record-breaking number. On average, nearly 2,000 youths leave daily through legal migration channels.

According to the 2021 Census, 2.2 million Nepalis currently reside outside Nepal, with 81.28% being male and 18.72% female.

In recent years, the issuance of labor permits has increased, and by 2020, the Department of Foreign Employment (DoFE) had approved labor migration to 110 countries.

Most migrants are relatively young, typically between 25 and 35 years old, which has implications for domestic employment.

While labor migration offers economic benefits, its impacts—both positive and negative—must be thoroughly assessed at both micro and macro levels to understand its effects on individuals and the nation as a whole.

Aspirations and desperation

The lack of job opportunities within Nepal has left its youth feeling more desperate than ever.

Regardless of ideological leanings, many are compelled to seek employment abroad.

Shrinking domestic job prospects, coupled with promises of high incomes and the lure of a better life, drive young people to accept risky jobs overseas.

Additionally, aspirations to own land, build homes, and achieve financial stability in a short period encourage many to overlook the dangers. However, a lack of accurate information about the nature of foreign jobs often leads to exploitation.

Systemic challenges

Political instability, economic recession, the lingering impacts of COVID-19, and inadequate foreign investment have worsened Nepal’s employment crisis. Many young people no longer see a future in their homeland.

Agriculture, traditionally a primary sector, has become unappealing due to high production costs and stagnant prices, pushing more youth toward foreign employment.

Legal and logistical issues

Nepalese law prohibits its citizens from enlisting in foreign armies, except for the British and Indian militaries.

However, recruitment into the Indian army has been disrupted since the controversial Agneepath scheme which was introduced in June 2022.

This has left a vacuum for other opportunities, including enlistment in the Russian military, even though it violates Nepalese law.

Nepali youths appear willing to join any active military, regardless of ideological differences, as long as it offers respect and good pay. This explains why Nepali youths are found fighting alongside both Ukrainian and Russian forces.

Exploitation and human trafficking

Many Nepalese join the Russian army under false pretenses. Human traffickers exploit unemployed youth, charging them exorbitant fees of $1,500 to $2,500 with promises of lucrative military jobs.

Most individuals enter Russia on student or tourist visas, only to be deployed in conflict zones with minimal training. Language barriers and inadequate preparation leave many vulnerable, leading to high casualties.

In December 2023, Nepal Police detained 12 individuals involved in trafficking youth to Russia.

Despite these arrests, trafficking networks remain active across the country, and enforcement efforts are insufficient.

International and Regional Implications

Reports suggest that Russia actively recruits from economically disadvantaged countries like Nepal, Cuba, Kazakhstan, and Somalia, offering benefits such as a monthly salary of $2,000 and fast-tracked citizenship for soldiers and their families.

However, many recruits face grave risks due to inadequate training and being sent to the frontlines.

For Nepal, this ongoing migration trend not only violates domestic laws but also highlights the urgent need for systemic reforms to address unemployment, strengthen anti-trafficking measures, and protect its citizens from exploitation abroad.

Has Nepal failed in diplomatic negotiations?

In February 2022, as the Russia-Ukraine war erupted, Nepal called for restraint and urged all sides to avoid escalating tensions.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, “As a member of the UN, Nepal views the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity as enshrined in the UN Charter as sacrosanct and must be fully respected by all member states.”

The discussions highlighted the $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation Compact, aimed at enhancing infrastructure, expanding electricity access, and promoting cross-border power trade.

Following Russia’s attack, the Nepal Foreign Ministry issued a strong condemnation, stating, “Nepal unequivocally opposes any act of aggression or use of force against a sovereign nation.”

The statement emphasized Nepal’s unwavering commitment to the principles of the UN Charter and reaffirmed its support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Nepal’s position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked significant debate within the country’s foreign policy circles.

Traditionally, Nepal’s foreign policy has focused on maintaining neutrality in both bilateral and multilateral matters.

However, the nation’s support for Ukraine has raised speculation about a potential shift in its foreign policy approach.

This decision to stand in solidarity with Ukraine prompts questions about Nepal’s evolving stance on global conflicts and its dedication to upholding peace and international norms.

Despite this firm stance, Nepal finds itself grappling with the fallout of the conflict.

The plight of Nepali men trapped in Russia, some coerced into joining the Russian army, highlights the broader challenges of safeguarding its citizens amid global crises.

These individuals were deceived by travel agents who promised jobs as helpers, only to find themselves enlisted in military service.

Their appeals to the Nepalese government for assistance have so far yielded no results.

The current government led by CPN-UML party president KP Sharma Oli is engaged in diplomatic dialogue with Russia, and the Nepali embassy in Berlin is working with Ukrainian government to secure the release of Nepalis.

Earlier this year, Foreign Minister Arzu Deuba Rana met with Russian Ambassador to Nepal, Alexi Novikov, to discuss the recruitment of Nepalese citizens into the Russian army.

Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha stated during a parliamentary address that Russia had agreed in principle to terminate the contracts of Nepali citizens serving in the Russian army.

However, human rights activists have expressed a differing view.

The government is reportedly in discussions with Ukraine to secure the release of Nepali prisoners of war. However, officials indicate that Ukraine has attached certain conditions to their release.

These include legal action against the freed individuals upon their return to Nepal and assurances that no Nepali citizen will enlist in the Russian army again.

With more families coming forward to report loved ones missing in the Russia-Ukraine war, the Nepal government is under growing pressure to engage in dialogue with both Russia and Ukraine to ensure the safe return of its citizens.

This issue, however, is not unique to Nepal. Similar cases have emerged in India, where citizens have also been lured into joining the Russian army under false pretenses.

Unlike Nepal, India has taken proactive diplomatic steps, securing the release of at least six Indians from camps near the Russia-Ukraine border.

This success was after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally raised the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit to Moscow.

Meanwhile, stranded Nepali citizens are now appealing to the Indian government for rescue, as they lose hope in their own government’s response.

Nepal’s inability to address this crisis effectively raises questions about its diplomatic approach and whether it can follow India’s example in securing the safety and return of its citizens.

Many analysts argue that Nepal has fallen short in diplomatic efforts due to its failure to take proactive steps.

“The Nepalese government has not approached the matter with the urgency it demands, nor has it initiated meaningful negotiations with Russia or effectively communicated the gravity of the situation,” said Foreign Affairs expert Chandra Dev Bhatta based in Kathmandu.

“A lack of political-level engagement has hindered the delivery of a clear message to Russia. Furthermore, Russia’s apparent indifference may be influenced by Nepal’s inconsistent foreign policy, marked by fluctuating support between Russia and Ukraine. The frequent changes in Nepal’s government have also likely weakened Russia’s confidence in Nepal’s commitment,” he added.

To navigate this challenge, Nepal may need to consider seeking support from India or China.

It is reported that Nepal made attempts to engage with Russian officials regarding the issue of Nepalese serving in the Russian army.

These projects significantly improved infrastructure and industrial capacity. Since 1993, Nepalese firms have been leasing Russian Mi-17 helicopters to improve transport links in remote regions.

Former Foreign Minister NP Saud had been scheduled to visit Russia for discussions on the matter, but the trip was later canceled by then-Communist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’.

In October 2023, Minister Saud met with US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in Washington, where they emphasized the strong U.S.-Nepal partnership.

The discussions highlighted the $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation Compact, aimed at enhancing infrastructure, expanding electricity access, and promoting cross-border power trade.

Both leaders also acknowledged over 60 years of collaboration through Peace Corps Volunteers in Nepal.

Secretary Blinken extended condolences for the Nepali students killed in the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and expressed concern for Bipin Joshi, who remains missing.

Nepal’s poor diplomatic presence and capacity have often been blamed for the exploitation of Nepali workers abroad.

Dr. Govind Raj Pokharel expressed similar concerns, highlighting Nepal’s weakening diplomatic capacity due to inconsistencies in foreign policy. He criticized the country’s lack of a unified approach toward its neighbors, attributing it to political parties using diplomacy for their own political gain rather than national interest.

He emphasized the need to strengthen Nepal’s diplomatic capabilities and adopt a more coherent foreign policy, warning that internal political conflicts have overshadowed efforts to enhance the country’s international standing.

He urged Nepal to leverage its relationships with India and China to facilitate the repatriation of Nepalese citizens involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Russia’s reliance on foreign mercenaries is part of its strategy to sustain its ongoing war against Ukraine while avoiding the need for full-scale mobilization of its own citizens.

The Kremlin has increasingly turned to foreign fighters, often treating them as expendable, leading to accusations that these recruits are being used as cannon fodder.

This tactic has strained Russia’s relations with countries that might otherwise be sympathetic to its cause, including Nepal. Russia’s hiring practices and its notorious disregard for the welfare of these foreign troops have drawn criticism from even its allies.

For instance, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić urged Moscow to halt efforts to recruit Serbs into the Russian military and the Wagner Group through social media after reports surfaced of Serbs being mistreated and treated as disposable by Russian commanders on the frontlines.

After a year into the war, Cuba arrested 17 members of a human trafficking network accused of recruiting and trafficking men to fight for Russia in Ukraine.

As the war continues into its third year, trends indicate that foreign recruitment efforts are likely to persist.

Moscow has expanded its recruitment efforts into Africa, and Ukraine has appealed to poorer nations to take action against traffickers who entice young men to fight for Russia with promises of high pay.

The growing use of foreign recruits in the conflict has sparked concerns about human rights abuses and the exploitation of vulnerable populations, while also straining international relations for Moscow.

Sweden and Finland, both historically maintained military non-alignment as a core tenet of their foreign policies but Russia’s invasion had clearly shaken them. Both the countries ended up joining NATO, which Putin was feared the most.

The US and its allies possess a range of tools to counter Russia’s recruitment efforts.

They can also collaborate with law enforcement agencies to dismantle criminal networks involved in human trafficking.

Positive steps have already been taken, such as Nepal’s decision in January to suspend all work permits for Russia, marking a significant move in the right direction.

Disrupting Russia’s recruitment efforts would significantly reduce the manpower available to Putin as he relies on others to bear the cost of his unlawful invasion.

By sending foreign recruits to the frontlines, Putin manages to shield the Russian population from the war’s consequences, which is vital to sustaining the conflict. Halting this flow of foreign fighters would make it more difficult for him to maintain this detachment.

Nepal-Russia relations gamut

In 2016, marking 60 years of diplomatic relations between Russia and Nepal, President Vladimir Putin expressed optimism about enhancing ties for mutual benefit, with a focus on regional stability.

He identified promising areas of collaboration, including energy, metallurgy, infrastructure, and civil aviation.

Russia’s interest in Nepal is particularly driven by the country’s untapped hydroelectric potential, and Moscow aims to increase its influence in Kathmandu while expanding its corporate presence.

By 2019, Russia was exploring the expansion of helicopter supplies to Nepal.

Following talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Nepali counterpart Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, Lavrov highlighted the performance of Russian Mi-17 helicopters in Nepal’s mountainous terrain.

He noted plans to deepen cooperation in aviation. Beyond aviation, Nepal views Russian expertise in energy, particularly hydroelectric technology and non-conventional energy solutions, as highly valuable.

Historical ties in this sector date back to Soviet assistance in establishing Nepal’s Panauti Hydroelectric Power Station in 1965.

Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, bilateral engagements persist despite sensitive issues such as Nepalese nationals involved in the conflict.

Moscow has proposed new projects to maintain collaboration, including 13 initiatives spanning railways, roads, and other infrastructure. However, progress on these proposals has been limited.

Russia has also expressed interest in constructing two children’s cancer hospitals in Kathmandu and Pokhara and offering 150–200 annual scholarships for Nepali students in medicine and engineering.

Historically, Soviet contributions to Nepal’s development were substantial. The USSR helped build a sugar factory in Birganj, a cigarette factory in Janakpur, sections of the East-West Highway, and a rosin and turpentine plant in the 1980s.

Despite the country’s immense potential for hydroelectricity, much of it remains untapped. Russian energy corporations aim to play a key role in harnessing this resource, which could redefine regional dynamics and challenge the existing dominance of India and China in Nepal.

These projects significantly improved infrastructure and industrial capacity. Since 1993, Nepalese firms have been leasing Russian Mi-17 helicopters to improve transport links in remote regions.

Additionally, education remains a cornerstone of bilateral ties, with Nepalese students annually admitted to Russian universities on state-sponsored scholarships.

In an effort to enhance bilateral trade, a delegation from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation visited Nepal in April and called on then Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’.

During their meeting, Dahal and the Russian business representatives discussed various aspects of bilateral relations and Russian investment opportunities in Nepal, as stated by the Prime Minister’s Office.

The Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Nepal and Russia have been collaborating since 2011 to establish industrial ventures, primarily focused on utilizing Russian technology in hydroelectric projects, construction materials, and energy sectors.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Nepal sought assistance from Russia, with former President Bidya Devi Bhandari requesting Sputnik V vaccines.

Pre-pandemic, Russian tourism to Nepal had grown steadily, with visitor numbers rising from 4,900 in 2015 to 10,300 in 2019.

Cultural ties also remain strong, especially among Russian Buddhists keen to visit Lumbini, the birthplace of Gautam Buddha.

In 2021, marking 65 years of bilateral ties, plans for a Buddhist temple funded by Russian Buddhists underscored cultural connections.

The Soviet Union began supporting Nepal’s development soon after establishing diplomatic relations in 1956.

In 1991, Nepal recognized the Russian Federation as the USSR’s successor, although bilateral ties slowed during the late 1980s and early 1990s due to internal challenges faced by both nations.

Relations began revitalizing in the mid-1990s, leveraging past experiences while adapting to modern needs.

Regular consultations between foreign ministries resumed in 1992, and parliamentary visits became a recurring feature of bilateral engagement.

In recent years, trade between Russia and Nepal has remained modest. In 2018, bilateral trade totaled $9.1 million.

However, there has been a gradual uptick, with a 5.5% increase recorded in the first half of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018.

However, trade between Russia and Nepal has faced challenges. In 2022, the trade turnover between the two countries declined significantly, totaling less than $5 million.

Nepal’s exports to Russia include products such as tea, incense, raw hides and skins, carpets, cotton garments, musical instruments, and artwork.

Russian Ambassador Aleksei Novikov, during a 2023 meeting with Nepal’s former Foreign Minister Narayan Prakash Saud, emphasized energy, economic, and cultural cooperation.

Discussions also included resuming direct flights between Moscow and Kathmandu, a move seen as pivotal for trade and tourism.

In 2024, during talks with Nepal’s former Finance Minister Barsaman Pun, Novikov highlighted plans to simplify financial operations through direct correspondent accounts between banks in both countries.

This measure aims to facilitate trade and investment, with a focus on potential shipments of Russian agricultural products like fertilizers, sunflower oil, and wheat to Nepal.

As a landlocked nation, Nepal has felt the ripple effects of the conflict more acutely, grappling with surging inflation and shortages of essential goods.

Such efforts signal growing economic ambitions, though Russia remains behind India and China in Nepal’s geopolitical landscape.

Looking ahead, Russia is expected to leverage Nepal’s vast river systems for hydroelectric projects.

Despite the country’s immense potential for hydroelectricity, much of it remains untapped. Russian energy corporations aim to play a key role in harnessing this resource, which could redefine regional dynamics and challenge the existing dominance of India and China in Nepal.

In 2022, Nepal proposed conducting trade with Moscow using their respective national currencies, similar to India’s trade with Russia in rupees and rubles.

There were reports suggesting that Kathmandu and Moscow might establish a mechanism for mutual settlements in their national currencies.

While Russia-Nepal relations have been marked by periods of stagnation, their historical foundations and ongoing initiatives reflect a commitment to fostering economic, cultural, and infrastructural ties.

With strategic focus and mutual interests, the bilateral relationship holds promise for growth, even as both nations navigate evolving regional and global challenges.

Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on Nepal

Beyond the emotional toll, the small Himalayan nation has faced significant economic repercussions.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, has compounded a conflict that has been ongoing since 2014, with Russia now escalating its offensive into Ukrainian territory and vice-versa.

Russia’s assault on Ukraine has sent shockwaves worldwide. As of August 2024, 3.7 million people were displaced inside the country, while an additional 6.7 million refugees from Ukraine were seeking safety beyond Ukraine’s borders, including 6.2 million in countries across Europe.

Western countries have condemned Russia’s actions, imposing harsh sanctions in response to the devastating invasion.

These measures include cutting off Russian gas and oil supplies, freezing assets, excluding Russia from global financial systems, and banning Russian flights.

Yet, President Vladimir Putin remains unyielding, showing no signs of withdrawing Russian troops from Ukraine.

Nepal has openly condemned Russia’s aggression, voting in favor of a UN resolution against the invasion.

This stance, however, contrasts with the neutrality maintained by its neighbors, India and China.

The persistent scarcity of goods and inflation during these crises serves as a critical lesson for Nepal to explore alternative strategies to fill supply gaps and reduce dependency.

As a landlocked nation, Nepal has felt the ripple effects of the conflict more acutely, grappling with surging inflation and shortages of essential goods.

By opposing Russia’s actions, Nepal has adhered to international norms, even at the risk of straining its fragile relationship with Moscow.

As of mid-July 2023, Russia’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nepal remains minimal.

The paid-up capital stands at Rs. 133.9 million, representing the actual investment made.

However, the reserves show a negative figure of Rs. -44.5 million, indicating losses or outflows related to Russia’s FDI in Nepal.

Additionally, there are no loan components tied to this investment, as the loan figure remains at Rs. 0.0 million.

Consequently, the total FDI stock from Russia amounts to only Rs. 89.4 million, reflecting the impact of the negative reserves.

Russia’s share in Nepal’s overall FDI is merely 0.03%, highlighting its negligible contribution compared to other countries.

Although Nepal’s economic ties with Russia and Eastern Europe are minimal, the crisis has directly impacted its economy through its dependence on neighboring India, which has been affected by rising global oil prices. Sanctions imposed by the West have further exacerbated Nepal’s challenges, driving up fuel costs.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with rising prices of essential commodities like food, fuel, and fertilisers, has heavily impacted Nepal’s import-dependent economy.

Key imports include refined petroleum ($2.24 billion, 16% of total imports), petroleum gas ($504 million, 3.75%), gold ($433 million, 3.23%), rice ($322 million, 2.4%), and soybean oil ($306 million, 2.2%), primarily sourced from India.

To manage these pressures, the Nepal Oil Corporation proposed measures to the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, and Supplies, including introducing Sunday as a public holiday, implementing odd-even vehicle restrictions, and reducing customs duties on fuel to mitigate shortages and offset the economic strain.

With Ukraine, during the period from January to June 2024, the total trade turnover between Ukraine and Nepal amounted to 15 million USD.

Ukrainian exports totaled 14.8 million USD, while imports from Nepal were 200 thousand USD.

The positive trade balance for Ukraine was 14.6 million USD. In 2023, the total trade turnover between Ukraine and Nepal reached 23.82 million USD, compared to 16.45 million USD in 2022.

The main items of Ukrainian exports to Nepal traditionally include: seeds and fruits of oil plants, fats and oils of animal and vegetable origin. Imports from Nepal mainly consist of filtration equipment.

However, exports from Ukraine have declined, leading to higher prices for cooking oil and food items that were typically imported from the country.

Nepal faces mounting challenges as increased inflation, slowed growth, and disrupted financial markets hinder its development.

Recovery efforts, including stabilizing prices, addressing supply shortages, and resuming exports, are bound to take time.

The pandemic had already dealt a heavy blow to Nepal’s economy, intensifying poverty as jobs were lost, industries shut down, markets closed, and trade restricted by stringent border controls.

This should have been a period for Nepal to accelerate its economic growth, but recurring crises—such as the earthquake, blockades, the pandemic, and now the Russia-Ukraine war—have compounded the country’s economic struggles.

The expansion of military engagements with China underscores Nepal’s growing interest in securing defense support from multiple sources to safeguard national interests and enhance military capabilities.

These events underline the urgent need for Nepal to strengthen internal resource management and boost domestic industries and production.

The persistent scarcity of goods and inflation during these crises serves as a critical lesson for Nepal to explore alternative strategies to fill supply gaps and reduce dependency.

With oil prices surging, Nepal must curtail petroleum imports and pivot toward renewable energy sources.

As an import-dependent economy, prioritizing heavy investments in hydropower is crucial to achieve its full production potential and reduce reliance on external energy supplies.

Nepal’s economy is anticipated to grow by 4.9% in fiscal year (FY) 2025, up from an estimated growth of 3.9% in FY2024, says the latest edition of  the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) flagship economic publication.

Nepal Rastra Bank’s target of containing inflation within 5.0% in FY2025 seems attainable.

The inflation forecast is expected to remain within the central bank’s ceiling, assuming a normal harvest and a modest decline in inflation in India, the major source of Nepal’s imports.

Nepalese Army beyond borders

Nepal has long maintained a strong tradition of military diplomacy, with its roots tracing back to the Rana era (1846-1951).

The country’s strategic engagement in military affairs began during the Indian Sepoy Mutiny of 1857-58, when Prime Minister Jung Bahadur Rana personally led Nepali forces to aid the British.

This marked the beginning of Nepal’s military cooperation with the British Empire, a partnership that continued through both World Wars. Over 200,000 Nepali soldiers fought alongside Allied forces during the Second World War, solidifying Nepal’s reputation for military strength and discipline.

Historically, Nepal’s diplomatic relationships with its neighbors were shaped by military engagements and defense policies.

This legacy continues to influence the nation’s foreign policy, but in recent years, Nepal has broadened its military outreach beyond its traditional partners.

Notably, Nepal has expanded its defense cooperation with China, reflecting a significant shift in its military diplomacy.

This expansion highlights Nepal’s strategic efforts to maintain balance in the region by fostering ties with rising global powers while preserving existing relationships.

Nepal still maintains strong defense ties with India, conducting joint military exercises such as Surya Kiran XIII.

These exercises, held regularly, focus on counter-insurgency and disaster response, strengthening interoperability between the two armies.

However, the initiation of joint drills with China marks a new phase in Nepal’s defense strategy, signaling an effort to diversify its defense partnerships.

While the Gurkhas of Nepal continue to serve in the British and Indian armies, their role extends beyond the region. Gurkha soldiers also serve in Singapore’s police force as part of the Gurkha Contingent and in Brunei’s Gurkha Reserve Unit.

The expansion of military engagements with China underscores Nepal’s growing interest in securing defense support from multiple sources to safeguard national interests and enhance military capabilities.

The modernization of Nepal’s military cooperation began under King Mahendra, particularly after the 1962 India-China War.

Seeking to strengthen ties with Western nations, Mahendra successfully secured military assistance from the US and the UK. In 1964, Nepal signed a defense agreement with the US, leading to logistical support for the Royal Nepali Army.

The UK followed suit, providing military aid, while India remained Nepal’s principal defense supplier.

Since 1950, the exchange of honorary military titles between the Army chiefs of Nepal and India has symbolized the deep-rooted camaraderie between the two forces.

This practice continues to reflect the mutual respect and solidarity that define Nepal-India defense relations.

For decades, India, the US, and the UK have been Nepal’s primary defense partners, providing military grants and equipment to support the needs of the Nepali Army.

However, over the past 30 years, there has been many changes in Nepal’s defense corporation.

China has emerged as a significant player in Nepal’s defense landscape.

This shift was accelerated following King Gyanendra’s royal takeover in 2005 and the abolition of the monarchy in 2008.

China’s influence in Nepal’s defense sector has been growing steadily, reflecting Beijing’s broader strategic interest in South Asia.

A milestone in Nepal-China military relations occurred in June 2017 when China officially handed over the National Armed Police Force Academy to Nepal.

Earlier, in December 2008, then Defense Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa signed a $2.6 million agreement with China to modernize the Nepali Army.

Since then, high-level military exchanges between Nepal and China have become more frequent, reflecting deepening defense ties.

The increasing collaboration includes training programs, arms supplies, and infrastructure development, reinforcing Nepal’s defense capabilities.

However, Ukrainian forces mounted fierce resistance. By February 28, just five days into the invasion, a 40-mile Russian convoy of 15,000 troops, tanks, and artillery stalled in a massive traffic jam—a significant tactical blunder.

While the Gurkhas of Nepal continue to serve in the British and Indian armies, their role extends beyond the region. Gurkha soldiers also serve in Singapore’s police force as part of the Gurkha Contingent and in Brunei’s Gurkha Reserve Unit.

Additionally, many Nepali soldiers contribute to United Nations peacekeeping missions, further reinforcing Nepal’s role in global military engagements.

Nepal’s evolving defense diplomacy reflects its commitment to balancing relationships with both traditional allies and emerging partners, ensuring a diversified and strategic approach to national security.

As the geopolitical landscape shifts, Nepal’s proactive approach to military diplomacy not only strengthens its national defense but also bolsters its influence on the international stage.

This strategic recalibration is vital for Nepal to navigate the complexities of modern geopolitics while preserving its sovereignty and promoting peace in the region

Why is Russia not winning the war?

From the outset, Russian President Vladimir Putin believed he would swiftly win what he initially termed a “special military operation.”

Russian soldiers reportedly brought parade uniforms, anticipating a victory celebration.

Putin expected to reach Kyiv within three days, believing Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators.

Meanwhile, the U.S. advised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to establish a succession plan in case he was captured or killed. Vice President Kamala Harris even suggested Zelensky to prepare an escape plan.

On February 21, Putin publicly set Russia on the path to war. Russian forces assumed tactical positions along the border, while Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine forced civilians to evacuate and conscripted men and boys into the Russian military.

In response, President Joe Biden signed an executive order blocking all economic activity in the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Western support played a crucial role. The West has provided approximately $61.4 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its premeditated, unprovoked, and brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and approximately $64.1 billion in military assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, says the US.

On February 24, Putin announced in a televised address that a “special military operation” would commence in Ukraine.

U.S. officials estimated that Russia had mobilized 123 battalion tactical groups, totaling between 175,000 and 190,000 troops.

Russian forces advanced from multiple fronts—Belarus to the north, Donbas to the east, and Crimea to the south.

Two columns of Russian troops pushed towards Kyiv, intending to decapitate the Ukrainian government.

However, Ukrainian forces mounted fierce resistance. By February 28, just five days into the invasion, a 40-mile Russian convoy of 15,000 troops, tanks, and artillery stalled in a massive traffic jam—a significant tactical blunder.

The battle for Kyiv lasted less than five weeks before Russia announced its withdrawal, with 35,000 Russian troops having participated in the failed assault.

NATO estimated at least 10,000 Russian soldiers were killed. Ukraine’s defense shattered the perception of Russia as an indomitable military force.

Both the U.S. and Russia underestimated Ukraine and overestimated Russia. After the invasion, European nations responded swiftly and decisively.

Despite Russian advances in the east and south, including Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol, Ukrainian resistance remained strong.

Russian troops, poorly motivated and facing logistical issues, experienced shortages of food, water, and ammunition.

Ukraine’s unexpected resilience can be attributed to a combination of its capabilities, Western support, and Russian dysfunction.

Zelensky’s passionate speeches rallied international support, securing advanced military aid and financial assistance.

His leadership bolstered Ukrainian morale, convincing the population that victory was possible.

Ukraine was better prepared for war than many anticipated, partly due to reforms after the 2014-2015 Donbas conflict. With NATO guidance, Ukraine modernized its military, adopting practices emphasizing operational flexibility and decentralized command structures.

Local knowledge of the terrain allowed Ukrainian forces to outmaneuver Russian troops, while informant networks provided crucial intelligence.

Earlier in December, Putin expressed readiness to negotiate with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, while rejecting the prospect of a temporary truce with Kyiv, insisting on a long-term peace deal.

Western support played a crucial role. The West has provided approximately $61.4 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its premeditated, unprovoked, and brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and approximately $64.1 billion in military assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, says the US.

U.S. intelligence and advanced artillery enabled precise strikes on Russian supply lines and command centers. Although sanctions have not crippled Russia’s economy, they have weakened its military capacity.

However, U.S. officials recently signaled to Kyiv that continued support may have limits. Political opposition within the U.S. could reduce aid, potentially leading to shortages of ammunition and weapons for Ukraine.

In August, after months of defense, Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive, reclaiming over 400 square miles and advancing into Russia’s Kursk region. Zelensky stated the incursion aimed to establish a buffer zone to prevent future Russian attacks.

Ukraine’s main objective remains the liberation of its occupied territories. That includes not just those held by Russia since the February 2022 invasion, but a return to its internationally recognised borders, including Crimea.

More than a thousand days into the war, signs suggest Ukraine is facing manpower shortages. Meanwhile, Russia is seizing territory at its fastest pace since 2022.

In September, The Wall Street Journal reported nearly one million casualties on both sides, with Ukrainian deaths outpacing births threefold in early 2024.

Without consistent U.S. military aid, Ukraine’s frontline risks collapsing, potentially handing Putin a significant victory.

Earlier in December, Putin expressed readiness to negotiate with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, while rejecting the prospect of a temporary truce with Kyiv, insisting on a long-term peace deal.