The southern sub-region of Asia, South Asia, has a questionable identity and is one of the significant hubs of diverse cultures, ethnicities, and religions, showcasing its many folds of significance across the globe.

Its cultural and natural beauty is reflected in its unity and diversity. South Asian countries share a common culture, heritage, and religions, such as Hinduism, Islam, and Buddhism, which are prevalent from the Bay of Bengal to the Himalayas. On the other hand, they have internal and external diversity in these areas.

However, they share a common crisis: climate change. Climate change provokes internal and external migration across South Asia. It is a crucial cause of low food production across the region.

Rising sea levels, droughts, cyclones, and extreme weather events illustrate this. These uninhabitable and unsustainable situations force people to migrate from coastal to urban areas.

Most of the climate migrants, such as those in Bangladesh, are settling in the capital city, Dhaka, contributing to the expansion of slum areas or the creation of new ones across the city.

Like Bangladesh, Nepal also faces climate change and migration issues. Over the last few decades, due to climate change, extreme natural disasters, including landslides, glacial outbursts, dry spells, and droughts, have increased across Nepal.

The World Bank estimates that up to 143 million people could be displaced within their countries due to slow-onset climate impacts by 2050. According to the report, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia are more vulnerable than other parts of the world.

Climate change can disrupt livelihoods, particularly in fishing and agriculture, leading to economic hardship and an increased migration rate among South Asian people.

More specifically, the above-mentioned impacts of climate change can provoke further migration. The World Bank estimates that 19.9 million Bangladeshis will internally migrate due to climate change by 2050.

Similarly, Pakistan will have about 2 million internal climate migrants by 2050. Pakistan will need to provide new shelters for them; otherwise, they could contribute to the creation of a vast number of new slums in various cities of Pakistan.

Slycan Trust’s case study on “Climate Displacement and Internal Migration in Sri Lanka: A Case Study on Trincomalee District” claims that the key drivers of migration in the Trincomalee district of Sri Lanka are lack of development and education, insufficient diversification of livelihoods, and poverty; however, climate change is one of the vital factors that make agriculture increasingly difficult and forces farmers to migrate to the cities for weeks, months, or even years at a time.

Internal migration and displacement due to climate change are more prominent than external migration. Climate change is considered one cause of slow cross-border migration.

Even slum boys could be used for regime changes, as seen in the Bangladeshi July uprising. Therefore, South Asian political leaders should pay attention to the climate change migration issues to avoid future political turmoil in their countries.

Therefore, South Asia will face a significant number of both legal and illegal cross-border migrations due to climate change by 2050. For example, Bangladeshi people may migrate to India and other South Asian countries in search of shelter, food, and resources due to climate change.

Like Bangladesh, Nepal also faces climate change and migration issues. Over the last few decades, due to climate change, extreme natural disasters, including landslides, glacial outbursts, dry spells, and droughts, have increased across Nepal.

The Asian Development Bank estimates that Nepal could lose 2.2% of its annual GDP due to climate change impacts by 2025. In this case, the most vulnerable sectors in Nepal due to climate change are agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, forestry, and health. These risk factors could spur migration from villages to the capital. This internal migration could negatively impact the Nepali economy and urban environment.

Climate change influences migrant patterns in South Asia, exacerbating existing demographic, economic, and social environmental migration drivers, particularly in rural areas where floods, cyclones, landslides, droughts, and sea-level rise threaten livelihoods.

For this reason, like the Nepali economy and city environment, most South Asian countries will face new climate change crises. The large cities across South Asia, including Kathmandu, Dhaka, Delhi, Calcutta, Lahore, and Karachi, could burden urban sustainability and city governance.

It could cause enormous problems, infrastructural shortages, and a lack of social and environmental services.

Climate change migrants will be responsible for creating a vast number of new urban slums, and they could impact the infrastructure and services of South Asian cities.

A new informal slum economy could spread, challenging urban governments to maintain their people’s security. Human trafficking, drugs, and terrorism could take on new forms.

As people struggle to survive and acquire better land for water and daily resources they lost due to climate change, new religion-ethnic conflicts could emerge in many South Asian countries.

Even slum boys could be used for regime changes, as seen in the Bangladeshi July uprising. Therefore, South Asian political leaders should pay attention to the climate change migration issues to avoid future political turmoil in their countries.

Interestingly, in the Myanmar case, climate change creates armed conflict, as Kyungmee Kim notes in her article “Concurrent Challenges of Conflict and Climate Change in Myanmar.”

She claims that “The relationship between climate change and violent conflict is complicated. Existing studies suggest that climate change increases armed conflict through indirect pathways, including detriment to livelihoods, displacement, migration, and existing conflict dynamics.”

The above research findings are crucial for other South Asian countries because of their geographical and ethnic-religious diversity. Climate change can provoke new religion-ethnic conflicts that lead to armed struggles.

As people struggle to survive and acquire better land for water and daily resources they lost due to climate change, new religion-ethnic conflicts could emerge in many South Asian countries.

Therefore, all South Asian leaders should make a plan and take immediate action to face these new challenges created by climate change together.

(Md. Abusalah Sakender, Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic History & Culture, Jagannath University and Advisory Editor, Nepal News. He can be reached at salah.sakender@outlook.com)