Deterrence against China is the goal for US military

China, through the growing reach of the powerful People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has made abundantly clear what its ambitions are towards territories on its periphery and strategic competitors. Consequently, the USA and its friends must demonstrate resolve against expanding Chinese military coercion.

In July, the RAND Corporation issued a report entitled Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of US and Allied Military Power and Influence. It laid bare a dire situation: “It has become increasingly clear that US defence strategy and posture have become insolvent. The tasks that the nation expects its military forces and other elements of national power to do...greatly exceed the means that have become available to accomplish those tasks.”

RAND’s analysts gloomily assessed that US all-domain military “superiority is gone, surely with respect to China, but in significant ways with respect to the forces of other, less powerful adversaries as well, and it is not coming back … And herein lies the nub of the problem: Neither today’s force nor forces currently programmed by the US Department of Defense, appear to have the capabilities needed to execute this new approach [to defeat Chinese aggression].”

It is against such a backdrop that Exercise Talisman Sabre, held in Australia from 22 July-4 August, should be viewed. One of Washington DC’s most loyal Indo-Pacific friends is Australia, so the largest ever wargames between the two was the perfect opportunity to send an appropriate message to Beijing. An unprecedented 13 nations participated in the exercise, including some for the first time.

Brigadier General Kevin Jarrard, Assistant Division Commander, 1st Marine Division of the US Marine Corps (USMC), was in Australia to witness the joint and coalition exercise. He highlighted the importance of partners. “What we recognize is that whatever problems we’re going to face in INDOPACOM [Indo-Pacific Command] – a crisis, contingency or conflict – we’re not going to solve on our own. So, our partners and allies here in INDOPACOM, that’s how we’re going to solve these problems. And so the opportunity to operate alongside our longstanding friends in the Pacific and to make some new friends, we realize that we’re part of the neighbourhood…These are tough problems that are going to require everybody’s cooperation to solve.”

Surely the only conceivable way to deter China and the PLA is to combine capabilities. That means going beyond mere interoperability between allied forces. Rear Admiral Chris Stone, commander of the US Navy’s (USN) Task Force 76/3, explained to ANI aboard his flagship USS America during Exercise Talisman Sabre: “So we talk a lot about interoperability of our forces. I view that really as kind of the basics; that’s being able to communicate with each other, and having similar systems, where you can, say, refuel each other’s ships, and things along those lines.”

The admiral continued: “Where we’re really trying to progress to is interchangeability, which is kind of the next step, that any one of us, regardless of the flag that we fly, can perform a mission for the other partner/ally … So we’re really trying to progress to where we can plug and play with each other, where we have similar tactics, techniques, procedures, doctrine, understanding, training, proficiency. In any way you slice it or dice it, you can just take one and plug it into the other and do the same missions for each other.”

Brig Gen Jarrard described the tyranny of distance in the Indo-Pacific theatre. He mentioned the problem posed by “a contested logistics environment, which we really haven’t had to operate in for a very, very long time. So, the 20 years that we spent in the desert [the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts], we essentially had air supremacy and it certainly was not a maritime theatre. INDOPACOM is inherently a maritime theatre, there’s no question about that.”

Exercising in Australia is thus an extremely realistic challenge for the US military, as forces and supplies poured in from all quarters of the American realm. As part of that, the US established a Joint Logistics Over The Shore (JLOTS) facility in Australia for the first time. JLOTS is a floating pier that allows equipment to be unloaded onto a beach where port facilities do not exist. Establishing expeditionary advanced bases was also an important element in Exercise Talisman Sabre.

To counter China, the USMC has also created Marine Littoral Regiments (MLR), with the first already stood up in Hawaii and another currently being formed. Containing air defence and anti-ship missiles, low-signature MLRs are able to perform sea denial operations. Projecting power from land to maritime reverses how the USMC traditionally operates.

Indeed, dispersal of forces through units like MLRs is critical, since the PLA has the ability to project power long distances, particularly through its missile inventory. Concentrations of American troops in Okinawa, mainland Japan and Guam are all at risk of a Chinese missile attack. Indeed, the aforementioned RAND report stated, “US forces, posture and operational concepts over the past two decades have remained an essentially static and predictable target against which China has developed increasingly potent threats.”

The USMC general noted: “The days of concentrating large formations, I think, are gone, and so [we’re moving to] a highly capable, dispersed force. So, if you think about the capabilities that exist down at the squad level or the marine platoon level, they previously existed at the regimental or division level! So, we’re pushing tremendous capability down to the smallest of our units, which allows us then to disperse on the battlefield.”

He alluded to MV-22B Osprey tiltrotor aircraft as being critical in such warfighting. “The capability of that aircraft is revolutionary. I mean, it allows you to move at speed, vast distances, to refuel in the air, and then to resupply those dispersed units. I think everybody understands how it’s a good idea to be dispersed, but how do you sustain those units in such a dispersed battlefield? … We’re thinking hard about the problems that a dispersed force across the tyranny of the geography of the Pacific presents to us, and how are we going to solve those challenges.”

One example is treating casualties, where proposed solutions include blood transfusions being available at the lowest levels. “So just like we’re pushing down offensive and defensive traditional military capability, we’re also pushing down some of those medical capabilities that previously would only have existed far to the rear of a conflict, to the lowest possible level. So, instead of consolidating surgical care in big juicy targets…dispersing that surgical care and pushing it forward. It’s going to require better training, better equipment, a new way of thinking about old problems.”

One lesson from the conflict in Ukraine is disrupting the find-fix-finish kill chain. Brig Gen Jarrard mused: “How do we hide ourselves practically, camouflage in the traditional sense? But how do we hide ourselves in the signature, electronic realm? How do you hide? How do you camouflage yourself in that realm? So that’s some of the lessons I think we’re trying to learn from watching conflict unfold around the globe. We’re always keenly interested in lessons that are being learned, and near-peer adversaries certainly give us some concern.”

In response to the Indo-Pacific’s growing strategic threats, the USN is adapting too. Rear Admiral Stone said : “About a year and a half ago, we took a navy command, Expeditionary Strike Group Seven, which consists of amphibious ships…and the Marine units of the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Brigade, and we put them together with really a concept that, if we operated together day in and day out, that would be better as a combined team and more proficient than coming together for integration and exercises and operations, and then going our separate ways and coming back together.”

During Talisman Sabre, Rear Admiral Stone commanded a strike group of about 11,000 sailors and marines and 14 ships. The admiral said, “Technically, it’s still in the phase of experimentation. I don’t view it that way. As the commander, I view this as us getting back to our roots of the Navy-Marine Corps team … So, frankly, this is getting back to where we used to be after we’ve spent the last several decades focused on a different domain. It’s about being able to establish power projection from the maritime to the land.”

Just like partnering with like-minded nations, forward deployment is critical for the US military. The RAND report “Inflection Point” stated, “US and coalition forces simply cannot count on having the time they would need to deploy to the theatre and fight to gain dominance in key domains before attacking the enemy’s invasion force at scale.

“Especially in the case of China, speed is of the essence. We do not know [if Beijing yet has] confidence in the [PLA’s] ability to prevail in a major conflict with Taiwan and the USA, but the US defence establishment has surely not done enough to deny them that confidence.”

Brig Gen Jarrard shared, “In the event of crisis or contingency, the thought of having to move so many troops, so much logistical support, from Camp Pendleton [in California] is a daunting task because of the tyranny of geography. So, pushing anything we can forward and then being able to use those to scale at the echelon. So, whether that’s Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Guam, Okinawa, it allows us to be forward positioned to better prepare for crises.”

Again, it all comes back to deterrence. The US and its partners must be ready to act if China does something foolish such as attack Taiwan, even as it is already threatening stability in the region. As RAdm Stone acknowledged: “Let me elevate that discussion just a bit, and talk about why it’s important. So, the Indo-Pacific is expansive and we’re all connected. The vast majority of the world’s commerce travels via the oceans and the waterways of the Indo-Pacific. There’s not one nation, there’s not two and I would say three or four nations, that individually can preserve the security in the safe transfer of goods and services across these waters by themselves. We have to operate together for us to ensure that we maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific and that all the nations are complying with the rules-based order which governs our conduct, and we work together well as neighbours to do all of those things.”

Returning to exercises like Talisman Sabre: “So the more that we practice together the skills that are required to maintain that freedom of the international waterways is important, so everything we do we do together in a partnership.”

The USN admiral added: “Our job and what we spend our time on every day is reassuring our allies and partners. And that’s a big part of deterrence, and we are capable, we are ready and we are training for that every day to defend this ship, this strike group, whatever it may be. We hope it doesn’t come to that; we prefer to practice our partnership ... But we’re prepared, if it comes to conflict, to defend ourselves and defend the force against a range of threats and, frankly, we practice it every single day.”

RAdm Stone told ANI he does not lie awake at night worrying about regional threats. “I just think about how to collectively increase our skill sets and make sure that we’re ready for anything that comes in the future. But I think the fact that you have 13 nations out here speaks for itself … Increasingly, you’re seeing like-minded nations that are committing to a free and open Indo-Pacific that follows a rules-based order…” He described it as a testament to commitment and deterrence.

The final word goes to Brig Gen Jarrard: “War with anybody is daunting … The Marine Corps is always focused on readiness. We’re ready for crisis, contingency, and conflict at any time any place. We certainly don’t want war. Those of us who have lived through the wars of the last two decades don’t want to see war. So, we hope that our efforts here are focused on deterrence and cooperation, that we’re stronger together and that the cost of conflict is prohibitive. Because what we’re demonstrating is no better friend, no worse enemy than the United States Marine Corps, combined with our allies and partners.”